Poll Porn Much Sexier When It Shows Kamala Harris Winning All These Swing States!
DO THE WORK.
How’s about some swing state poll porn? We know the Trump supporters at the Trump rallies won’t believe these polls, because they don’t believe hoopla like that, but maybe you will?
(Yes, we know there is exactly one among you who keeps complaining because you like polls now, and yet you didn’t before. To him we say, here, have this “skeet.”)
Now that we’ve taken care of that!
This is a new survey from Cook Political Report, and it shows significant movement toward the Democrats in each and every one. And in each and every swing state except for one — Nevada — they are now showing Kamala Harris either beating Donald Trump or tied with him. (Though in a head-to-head match-up, Harris has still cut Trump’s lead by six points in Nevada.)
And their Nevada numbers look funny to us anyway, plus Democrats have been overperforming polls in every race since the Dobbs decision, so cautious optimism with all the usual caveats? We’ll take it.
Here is a graphic Cook tweeted:
That would put Harris at 297 electoral votes, WITHOUT Nevada, and with Georgia tied.
Let’s look at what that map looks like, again courtesy of a Cook graphic:
Those little numbers on the right — we screengrabbed their whole tweet — show where, at least according to this poll, Harris is most ahead and where she needs to grow the most. She’s comfortably ahead by five in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and up by two in Michigan and North Carolina. She’s up by four in Arizona. Then tied in Georgia and down five in Nevada.
Again, some of those numbers look a bit funky to us based on past performance, but remember that at the end of the day, polls are just a snapshot of a particular sample on a particular day. (To look at the full Cook poll click here.)
Maybe we should look at a couple other things!
Former political pollster and current self-styled election nerd Adam Carlson says Equis is one of the best and most rigorous polling outfits out there, and that he’d trust no one else to better and more accurately poll Latino voters.
So how’s this for movement, courtesy of Carlos Odio, the founder of Equis?
He tweeted:
New Equis poll out today, with further signs that the Kamala Harris entrance reset the Latino vote. Where Biden was only +5 among Latinos in the 7 most critical states, Harris is +19 after two weeks as the candidate.
Odio says Harris has moved so fast here by bringing disillusioned Democrats back into the fold, plus young voters under 40 and those who in the Biden/Trump matchup were considered “double-haters.” She’s bringing everybody home, is what it sounds like.
Check out Odio’s Twitter for more analysis on that one.
You even want some hopium for Florida like some kind of guy who reads the Hopium website instead of the lush dick jokes of Wonkette?
Carlson tweets a new FAU (Florida Atlantic University) poll showing that Trump is only holding on to a 50-47 lead there.
Now look, we personally believe that Democrats should not get their hopes up about anything involving Florida, but that’s interesting at least. It’s interesting that questions on codifying abortion and legalizing pot are at 56 (they need 60 to pass). And look at all those undecided voters!
It’s interesting that Rick Scott is performing as weakly as Trump, considering how charming Rick Scott is.
And again, a much tighter presidential race than we’ve seen in Florida recently.
Again, we’ll believe it when we see it in Florida, and these ain’t the November 5 results. But it’s all moving in the right direction.
So with that, we feel comfortable saying that you can go read the Hopium guy if you want to and shoot some of his HARD DRUGS of cautious optimism. He’s got stuff on today’s inflation report (it’s way down), plus his look at the same polls we found without even going to his website.
He does mention that the Nevada number looks funky to him too, based on recent polling that’s showing our team winning there.
Oh well, guess we should just all go do the work and make sure this all turns into big wins in November instead of just stinky polls on the stinky internet.
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I don't want to put the cart before the horse, but it looks like Harris strategy of campaigning instead of talking to a hostile beltway press is actually a perfectly fine strategy.
I am happy about this, really. I will never trust it because I feel like I'm reliving 2016 all over again. The polls were great for HRC. She won the popular vote and the EC killed us all that day. I'll never believe it was a clean win. Fuck you Comey and your russian handlers.