We come bearing devastating news. Actually two pieces of news, one devastating and one not-as-devastating. The first piece of news is that the Golden Era is over. As in, the price of gold cannot be expected to continue rising as it has been. Does this mean that we will stop being inundated with commercials with the blond guy (who you may remember from the “them apples” exchange in Good Will Hunting) trying to convince us to buy gold? Will Glenn Beck be advocating a return to food hoarding? Are we to expect Ron Paul to actually start buying some gold, now that gold prices are going to embark on a steady decline?
Analysts Tom Kendall and Ric Deverell of Credit Suisse is out with a bombshell report this morning titled: Gold: The Beginning Of The End Of An Era.
The article argues that the 2011 peak of $1921 was the top, and that now the run of the cult metal is coming to an end.
The argument essentially boils down to two arguments, which are related.
The first is that we’re seeing rate normalization. When real interest rates are ultra-low, gold does well historically.
The second is that the era of crisis is over, and so the impulse to hedge against collapse (or massive volatility) is diminishing.
And here we are with the second piece of news, which is that the “era of crisis” is over, because the “real economy” is starting to improve again. Did you know that? We did not know that, given that there is 26% unemployment in Spain and 27% in Greece, the UK is coming up on a triple-dip recession, and American wages have continued to stagnate. We keep advocating that people go to the job-handing out place, where they just give out jobs with a fair wage and good benefits, but this may have been misguided; apparently we should have been telling people to sell gold and head on over to the Real Economy.