rise of the machines

Terrifying Numbers-Wizard Nate Silver Predicts Electoral College; Future Elections To Be Replaced By Math

This is how punditry endsGood morning, America! Does this map look familiar to you? Of course it does, it’s the map appearing on every newspaper website in the country, indicating which party won all the various states in the Electoral College in last night’s election. Except this particular map actually comes from Nate Silver’s math and numbers emporium, and was created before any votes were counted! Is this proof that all elections will be replaced by the soulless beeping of IBM computers? Let’s hope!

The creepiest thing about Nate’s prediction is that the only state that he didn’t claim better than 79% certainty about was Florida, which he called as an almost exact tie (probability of going for Obama: 50.3%). Naturally Florida is, as of this writing, leaning towards Obama but still too close to call.

Anyway, we would like to urge everyone to go read this Politico piece again about how dumb and wrong Nate is and how math and numbers are ruining political punditry forever, and then laugh and laugh at how upset people were by the concept that you could tell how an election might turn out by asking people in advance how they’ll vote and then figuring a way to accurately assess the answers they give. And then turn yourself into your local processing center to have your brains replaced by microchips and your guts by circuitry, because everything great about being a human being in general and a political pundit in particular has now been ruined forever.

About the author

Josh was born and raised in Buffalo, New York, leaving him with a love of chicken wings and a tendency to say “pop”. He taught ancient Greek and Roman history to undergraduates before fleeing from academia in terror; worked for a failed San Francisco dot-com that neglected to supply him with stock options or an Aeron chair; lived in Berlin, where he mostly ate Indian and Ethiopian food; finished in third place on his sole Jeopardy! appearance (the correct answer was “Golda Meir”); and was named 2007 Blogger of the Year by The Week, for obvious reasons. Josh is the creator/editor of COMICS CURMUDGEON (which you should read) and does geeky editing and writing about geeky things such as "the Java programming industry for JavaWorld." He lives in Baltimore with his wife Amber and his cat Hoagie.

View all articles by Josh Fruhlinger
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  1. Loch_Nessosaur

    Political pundits need to seek a new line of work. I suggest wedding planning.

    o/t – Allen West(FL-Reprobate) OUT.

          1. zumpie

            Too many Mormons and not nearly as progressive as it likes to pretend it is (also you'd be surprised what uptight, pearl clutching, Betty Draper type busybodies all the Portland hipster moms really ARE).

            CO probably passed it along libertarian lines, WA really simply IS more liberal than OR

    1. Terry

      A lot of walking embarrassments were voted out or not voted in last night. West, Akin, Mourdock, Bartlett, Walsh. Too bad Bachmann didn't join them.

      1. docchaos

        Enough Dems in her district chose cheap laughs on Wonkette over party and country to kept her in office.

    1. Tundra Grifter

      John Hope Bryant ("The Silver Rights Movement") has been pushing this concept for a while, and I think it is a good one.

    2. sudden_eyes

      Or – "Brainy is the new sexy," as Irene Adler said earlier this year in "A Scandal in Belgravia" (BBC's "Sherlock").

    1. weejee

      Looks like Morning Joe will have to be writing a check after his bet with Saint Nate. And Dick Morris got his come-upins. A marvelous schadenfreude strudel.

    2. Chet Kincaid_

      There was no point to Unskewedpolls beyond mitigating Republican voter suppression, and having "one of their own" the way Right-Wingers and Christianists always have to have their own versions of things normal people enjoy.

      1. Terry

        It will be interesting to see what happens to Unskewedpolls now that he was so utterly and profoundly wrong. As he's conservative, though, he may toddle right along as if nothing happened.

        1. Biel_ze_Bubba

          UnscrewedPolls will morph into a page on Conservapedia, where it will can remain well-insulated from reality.

        2. krazyvladimir

          Abandoned domain name taken over by a porn site………. perhaps pole dancing live strippers…

    3. Studebaker Hawk

      If you take out the states that were biased against Republicans, then Romney won by a landslide.

      1. sewollef

        You see, that's it exactly.

        Bias played such a big part in this election. and that's without mentioning the $100 million the Cock Brothers spent. Doh. I said I wasn't going to mention the Cock brothers $100 million… oh fuck, I've just one it again.


    4. actor212

      I said it when he started his postings:

      You can work the ref, you can't work the scoreboard.

      The sad thing is, if this asshole hadn't gotten all rowdy, the conservatives might have paid a bit more attention to the real polls and started doing the work they needed to do in Virginia and Wisconsin to win the damned thing.

      Not that I'm complaining, mind you, just laying out the argument I'll be making when my conservative friends all go, "But…but…UnskewedPolls!"

        1. actor212

          Listen, the Congressional caucus went even MORE batshit rightwing last night, so I don't think we're in any danger, except, you know, for getting shit done and maybe saving people from yet another catastrophic storm.

  2. Barbara_

    I've been doodling "Mrs. Nate Silver, Barb Silver, Nate and Barbara Silver" all morning. Nate, call me!

    1. Flat_Earther

      I have calculated the probability of Nate calling to be less than 5%. On the other hand polling suggest a high probability of contact from Flat Earth if he had your number.

        1. Tundra Grifter

          Then comes love;
          Then comes an election.

          Then comes Nate Silver's great big


          [You have a dirty mind!]

  3. FNMA

    Off topic, but I woke up this morning and gay marriage won, legalized weed won, Barry O. won, Elizabeth Warren won…Jesus, how much did I have to drink last night?

    Also off topic, woke up this morning thinking, Who has their country back now, motherfuckers?

    1. Loch_Nessosaur

      I woke up this morning feeling slightly hungover even though I didn't drink. I did however, celebrate Colorado style.

        1. just_a_head

          Can't decide:

          "Let's get to a Washington state."

          "Time to talk about Colorado!"

          "Enjoy my recreational freedoms"

          "Colorado, anyone?"

    2. RomneysLogCabin

      When I went outside to grab the paper, I found an Obama phone, food stamps and a nuva ring rolled up inside. Life is good.

    3. finette_

      Tyler, TX, where my aunt lives, voted yesterday to finally allow retail sales of beer and wine (but not spirits…yet), and the asshole Baptist minister who led the opposition says in the paper that he's preparing to file a lawsuit because "I want my city back." That phrase always was meaningless, but now it's even more so.

  4. bureaucrap

    To be fair to the pundits, Nate Silver probably could not toss a word salad nearly as garbledly as Mooselini. Failure like that takes a certain weird skill.

    1. mrpuma2u

      We need to get new pundits, with the exception of Rachel Maddow. All the rest of those bubble headed twits couldn't out math a 4th grader.

      1. sullivanst

        In the prediction business, it helps to try to see the world as it is, not as you hoped it would be.

    1. Chet Kincaid_

      It's interesting, but the job of every red dart on that graphic was not to render an accurate prediction, but to inflate Republican voter turnout. So it's a no-brainer that they were "wrong."

      1. Toomush_Infer

        Interesting that the Democrats were trying to scare their voters to the polls with how Obama was losing, while Rethugs were trying to make it seem like their voters would be on a winning team…

    2. hagajim

      At least most of the blue darts hit the dartboard. Dick Morris just made himself an even bigger laughingstock – if that's possible. Anyone see what ol' Morning Joe Douchebag had to say today?

      1. Tundra Grifter

        Yes – what a bundle of excuses. "This isn't your father's America anymore" is one of the lines.

        Then he said he didn't see that 2012 was going to be the same turnout as 2008. He thought we would revert to 2000 or 2004. But then he said 2012 was unique.

        Well, if it was unique, how could it be a repeat of 2008?

        I think I saw the clip on Media Matters for America. A remarkably smarmy performance. Perhaps we won't have Dick Morris to kick around any more…

  5. Oblios_Cap

    Now the pundits will begin telling us why we voted the way we did and what Barry needs to do in his next 4 years. What useless dolts.

    1. BoroPrimorac

      If you're a republican pundit, this clobbering means that the president must move to the middle and kiss the GOP's ass in order to get anything done in the next four years.

          1. HELisforHEL

            WTF would he? Two gasbags who obviously are about as much fun as a case of hemorrhoids. Or is it two hemorrhoids who obviously are about as much fun as a case of gasbags? Either way, ewwww.

    2. Toomush_Infer

      Well, all those red pundits are saying already how his non-mandate should be conciliatory and how he had better come begging, hat in hand, to Boner and the Turtle….

    3. Callyson

      I love that Mitch McConnell is telling Obama to move to the center, when Barry won his race and the Senate stayed in Democratic hands in what was supposed to be a prime opportunity for the Reeps to flip it.

      Yeah, what Nelson Muntz said…

    1. prommie

      Can heteros get gay married? I mean, if we have a a gay sponsor or something, does the club have a hetero auxiliary branch? Cause me and my intended would totally dig on a legally pot-laced wedding cake!

  6. NorthStarSpanx

    You want hard math? GQ got their hands on Mitt's real speech:

    We even got Oregon, which was a pleasant surprise. All of this was cited in a study conducted by the Association of Families and Values back in 2004. This is hard evidence, Mr. President.

  7. Mumbletypeg

    Thanks Josh. Say what's the over/ under of scoring some sweet, sweet video-capture of Governor Christie blubbering into his hankie while listening to "his President's" victory speech?
    I know it's a lot to hope for, I am still in *wishful thinking* mode until last night's reality sets in.

    1. missemish

      That bugged the shit out of me too. Uhhhh how does winning basically all of the swing states constitute as *narrow*?

  8. memzilla

    Let's look at what this election means:

    * The Affordable Care Act will go forward. Insurance companies won't be able to policy-rape the old, the sick, and the poor.
    * Medicare and Medicaid will not be turned into a voucher system.
    * Social Security will not be privatized.
    * Roe v. Wade will not be challenged, at least this term.
    * The Supreme Court will not be packed with clones of Scalia and Roberts.
    * Regulation of Wall Street will not be reversed.
    * Regulation of industrial polluters will not be reversed.
    * Big Bird won't have his nest foreclosed on.
    * We won't be getting into war with Iran.
    * FAIL: The .01% increasing its rapery of the 99%.
    * FAIL: The GOP stratagery of being the party of angry white men.
    * FAIL: Candidates who base their campaigns on lies, lies, and more lies.

    1. LibertyLover

      I'm pretty sure this: "The GOP stratagery of being the party of angry white men. " Will go on… and to illustrate, John McCain was yelling at people to "get off his lawn" last night again.

      1. memzilla

        Of course it will continue. However — sorry, I forget the source — every election cycle, the white voting population goes down by 1%, and the Hispanic voting population goes up by 1%. Demographic trendline FAIL, Rethuglicans.

        1. weejee

          That would require them doing the math. When the numbery science questions what they know in their knower they simply get out their hatchet and dispatch that which offends and their domain shrinks bit by bit. They're sorta like the poor polar bears on the ever diminishing pack ice, but the shrinking icebergs aren't the fault of those honky polar bears.

      1. memzilla

        Here's something else to degloomify you: We will never again hear "Americans sent a clear message with the 2010 elections." In fact….

    2. FNMA

      * FAIL: The pro-rape agenda. Who would have thought that being pro-rape would be a bad political strategy? Guess you just can't count on the rapists to come through on election day.

    3. elviouslyqueer

      * Jan Brewer's headless corpse will be found somewhere in the Sonoran desert.
      * Mitch McConnell will be shipped off to the Galapagos Islands to join the rest of his family.
      * Shares in bourbon distributors, Visine, and facial tissue will soar on news that John Boehner refuses once again to work with "that one."
      * Mitt Romney announces that he is running for president of the Cayman Islands.

    1. elgin_pelican

      I see Florida counting votes slowly…..one by one….and looking at us out of the corner of her eye to see if we're still paying attention….

  9. UW8316154

    Sour grapes are already: "Obama's big win does not mean Nate Silver is a towering electoral genious." Oh. Really? Why is that?

        1. GhostBuggy

          But all these stats triumphalists have it wrong. Nate Silver didn't nail it; the pollsters did.

          Yes, Slate, I think that's rather the point: pundits are completely useless, and it's not about magic or gut feelings or momentum or whatthefuckever else. It's about having eyes and a brain.

  10. Lucidamente1

    With this data set, I predict that Nate Silver has a 95.7% chance of getting at least one offer of sexual favors from a Wonkette commentator.

  11. Negropolis

    OT: Of all the bad-to-neutral news here in local Michigan races, last night, I was pleased to see that the Dems picked up two seat son the State Board of Education, leaving only 2 Republicans out of 8 seats on the board. Looks like we won't be having any debates on evolution and textbooks anytime soon, thank the FSM.

    Yeah, nerds did well, last night.

    1. Toomush_Infer

      Well the EM crap went down the toilet anyway….but we've still got that idiot Beneshek, so ….hm….anyway, we get to build the bridge, which should bring us some income….

      1. Negropolis

        I know, right? Total mixed bag. The Supreme Court divide stayed the same, though, the woman we did get on the court is a rising star. We narrowed the our deficit in the State House. But, we loss all the possible pick-ups, so our congressional delegation divide is the same…well, one down for the Dems since redistricting combined two of our seats.

        But, yeah, that bridge is thousands of good-paying union jobs, so Matty Moroun can eat it. Fucker wasted tens-of-millions of dollars on two proposals that failed spectacularly.

        1. Toomush_Infer

          Can he write that off, tax-wise? 'Cause I for one would like it to bite him in the wallet hard….

    2. BadKitty904

      That nutcase, Wu, running for the Kansas BoE also got his fanny paddled and Indiana's Superintendent of Education is now a Democrat and former (union) school teacher…

  12. e_z

    Look for Ruth Bader Ginsburg to give her notice. Confirmation of her replacement will take about a year. During which time Scalia, et.al. continue to give away the country.

      1. Lascauxcaveman

        She's a peach. Whoever we get in her seat won't be quite the same. I am having a John Paul Stevens type of sad, contemplating this.

      1. GunToting[Redacted]

        Considering Thomas is halfway up Scalia's ass, this is a true "two birds one stone" strategy.

      2. Isyaignert

        Just what I was thinking. It'd be a real shame if he were to have an accident or sumptin' like that.

  13. LibertyLover

    Local paper's Headline:
    "Obama reaches out to a divided nation"

    Not "Obama wins re-election."

    Arsehats. You know that if Romney had won, that would have been in block letters.

  14. Fukui-sanYesOta

    Nate owned the hell out of the doubters. Unskewed polls? natesilverwrong.com? The math geneeeeiouseses on free republic? Half the damn pundits on TV? All completely and brutally raped to death by polls and statistics and votes.

    Gives me a warm feeling inside. Can't say I ever really lost the faith, but it was a little nervy there for a while.

    1. FlipFlopFuck

      Fukui's Back! Fukui's Back! Fukui's back!

      This is way better than than some overwrought political news.

  15. ttommyunger

    I am tweeting and telling my Rightard Friends that I'm not gloating. I love our Country as much as they do and we have a long way to go to be the Country we need to be. I also tell them I know how they feel, since I suffered through eight long years with the idiot child Dubya in the White House.

    1. thatsitfortheother1

      I'm telling mine that they got a dose of reality last night that they can choose to ignore and continue to listen to right wing crap. or reflect upon the numerous errors of their ways.

    2. HELisforHEL

      I probably just got 'unfriended' by a couple of people, due to my measures responses to their histrionics this morning. Oh well, they can go wait for the apocalypse in their Jesus shrines, I'm tired of being pleasant to these people out of some libtard sense of civility.

      1. ttommyunger

        I only try to be civil (to most, not all of them) in the (probably vain) hope that only be interacting can I hope to get past the reptilian part of their brain and actually spark rational thought.

    3. fuflans

      that is very gentlemany of you tommy.

      i made only one slightly political (foul mouthed) comment on FB last night. i never post on FB, much less post politically.

      i save that for the wonks…

      1. ttommyunger

        FB is a labor of love. Why on earth would anyone think I give a fuck what someone else is eating or who they're fucking- and the KIDS! Give me a break!I'm not trying to be gentlemanly, just trying to raise the level of discourse above the grade school playground. Between you andMe: fuggem!Sent from the Field, not in Garrison.

    1. Isyaignert

      Seattle already has a million "coffee shops" maybe they can just add another line of "refreshments" to go with the scones they're already selling. Yes we cannabis – yes we DID!! Me likey!!

  16. CogitoErgoBibo

    And all over America, nerdy geeky numbers guys have a new goal: become Nate Silver's wingman and take the hot, brainy leftovers.

    1. Tundra Grifter

      I was gonna ask Sheer InSannity how his gut felt this morning.

      But, ya know, I really don't want to hear the answer. He and Dick Morris and Stuart Smarmy and Off-the-Mark Levin and Karl Rover (who kind of lost it on the FoxPAC last night, which was pretty cool) can go attend their Pity Party.

  17. Texan_Bulldog

    So happy this shit is over. My 'check liver' light has been blinking non stop.

    Saw that Ann looked teary last night at Mitt's concession speech. She may need a couple new ponies to cheer her up.

    1. fuflans

      i know the story is that egg – well 'egged' mitt on to the race but i just can't believe she really wanted it. it's so very alien to what her nature appears to be: not social, not political, not empathetic.

      hell, our lady michelle didn't want it and she's much more suited to it.

  18. BigSkullF*ckingDog

    Now if only fucking Scalia would retire or get a giant tumor in his dangly bits or fall in a well or something. With votes! Oh wait, he doesn't need votes. . .

    Time Out: Um, Editrix? Sorry to bother you this early in the morning, but I have a question. How do we wish harm on those in lifetime appointed positions without breaking the rules?

    1. oenspiek

      Try hoping that such people feel the need to retire, to spend more time with their families. Wish them lots and lots of time, with their families. Yeah, that's the ticket.

  19. UW8316154

    Remember in 2004, when the country roughly split but re-elected an embattled president? And then the side that lost was told, after the election, to "get over it?"

    This feels a little like that. Only reversed.

  20. Negropolis

    So, looks like the Tea Party hit it's ceiling, huh? I wonder if they are going to keep running them in Senate seats? If only for our own chances, I hope so, but I really don't know how many more of those type races I can take. It also looks like every once in awhile one of them finds their way into the Senate. I mean, it's a damned shame Deb Fischer beat Bob Kerrey. I saw the debate between the two, and it wasn't even close. It was like watching a slightly-more reserved Sharron Angle debate a slightly-more folksy John Kerry.

    BTW, if you'd have told me we'd win a Senate seat in North Dakota and lose one in Nevada, two days ago, I'd have laughed in your face. Weird.

      1. BigSkullF*ckingDog

        "Akin and Mourdock blew it with career-killing gaffes, not with ideology"

        Apparently, actually talking about the republican platform is now considered a gaffe.

      2. Toomush_Infer

        This is grrreat! Not getting it at all is a perfect way to become less and less consequential as the future ascends….thanks, Redstate!…

    1. fuflans

      i heard some wingtard freak on bbc saying rove was going to 'come back' from his huge embarrassment last night by resurrecting the baggers based on what will surely be untapped anger at bamz' second term.

      looking at the senate (and 2010 senate results) i say: go for it karl.

  21. arihaya

    Those conservative infidel pundits should prostate to Nate Silver (peace be upon him) asking for clemency for their blasphemy.

  22. vulpes82

    If Nate Silver didn't get laid last night, then there is no justice in this world. Also, I think he should go around to every cable news network and just walk on-set, throw out a "Suck it!" crotchchop, and drop the mic.

  23. Lot_49

    Slightly loony Democratic ex-congress-critter Bob Filner will be our new mayor* in San Diego. Doug Manchester, the homophobic jackass who bought the sole remaining newspaper to prevent just this eventuality can now go home and masturbate angrily.

    All hail Barry, Elizabeth and (saints preserve us) Jerry Brown's Prop 30, in which Californians voted to increase their own taxes to pay for schools'n'shit, reversing the long ugly trend begun by Prop 13.
    *His opponent was a gay Republican government contractor. Curiouser and curiouser.

    1. Negropolis

      Filner had THE creepiest congressional headshot I've ever seen. Glad you guys got a Democratic mayor, though. San Diego seems pretty swingy.

      1. Lot_49

        And those Mungers, however well-intentioned, who are still members of the über-wealthy class which believes everything must be for sale.

    2. Callyson

      YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Well done, America's finest city!!!

      Shit, now I want to drive down there to see his inauguration.


  24. i_AM_ready

    I love how Florida looks like a banana republic, still counting votes (or suppressing them, or whatever) when the rest of the country was finished last night.

    Don't bother, Florida, nobody cares.

    1. Loch_Nessosaur

      People in Florida care because it's an indictment against Governor Skeletor as well as all the ALEC ballot amendments that FAILED.

      1. BadKitty904

        What he said.

        Ideally, Pink-slip Rick is nervously listening for the sound of tumbrels in the streets as I type…

    2. Toomush_Infer

      I loved how those old white people had to go to bed at midnight and just left off counting, 'cause it would still be a pile of shit there in the morning….

    3. BoroPrimorac

      Take it easy on us, we rejected all the crazy abortion and tax related ballot measures which would've made us worse than Mississippi. I guess I'm just happy to see us remain the moderate yet very corrupt state that we've always been.

    4. Callyson

      or suppressing them, or whatever

      I am *so* glad those assholes in Ohio who tried it did not get away with it. Reason enough for the Sunshine State to insist on counting the fucking votes whether they'll determine the outcome or not.

  25. Goonemeritus

    Nate silver should never have to buy a drink again. Dick Morris and his brethren should be forced to cleanup highway shoulders as penance for terrifying all the nice Liberals of our country.

    1. Nostrildamus

      I don't think anyone on the left took Morris' predictions seriously. His penance should be for being a festering boil on the great ass of the USA.

  26. HempDogbane

    One of the nice things in Minnesota beyond knocking out the marriage and vote suppression amendments hard with the brilliant "Minnesota Nice: Vote No Twice" appeal is that the Republicans who engineered these crap amendments did so to get out the vote. They got their asses handed to them, lost another Congressional seat (briefly held) and turned the legislature back over to the grownups.

    Also, scared the pants off One-L.

  27. Come here a minute

    Time to start thinking about the second term — Chris Christie for FEMA anybody? Get a Democrat for NJ governor and they can build a goddamn tunnel!

  28. LibertyLover

    The only downside is that I hafta go beg for latte and arugula money because I sent all of mine to Obama's campaign. It's going to be a pretty lean month without my sweet elite expresso, but it was worth it.

    1. vulpes82

      Yeah, my credit card bill is a little higher than it should be due to giving to Obama, DSCC, Sandy relief, gay marriage amendment fights, etc. But it was worth it; it helped calm me when I was freaking out .

  29. e_z

    seanhannity @JedediahBila I agree with Rove. I think huge numbers yet to come hamilton Butler warren Delaware make Ohio VERY close. 10 hours ago · reply · retweet · favorite


  30. sbj1964

    The computer will always be better than Dick Morris's map.Fox News should pull his contract for making them look even dumber than usual.

      1. sbj1964

        Big fan RM you should check on Roger,I think he may have hung himself after carving Brooks/Roger was here on a beam in his parents basement.WeeTodd will be decimated.After peeing on Rogers grave.They were such a cute couple.

        1. Ricky Michael

          Hahaha, that's my favorite movie. I will check on him. Both of us being writers, we correspond off the ID system through email regularly. I also, know WeeTodd, Eyes_Open and several others too. Whereas, I am a Right Wing Nut Job Conservative Christian, I am at least practical. I get along with just about everyone. I have a few favorites of course, I love to tease Eileen4Freedom and now I have a new girl friend on your side named Susan. Neither one of them enjoys my off the wall sense of humor. Both report me pretty regularly. One of the administrators let me know that even though I was very funny they couldn’t continue to have “Tricky Ricky” on the loose any more. I think it was my “Mini-Me Roger” that did me in. Won’t being doing that again.

          1. Ricky Michael

            Yes, he does young adults books. Right now he is working real hard on one. The arch villian WeeTodd is really busy at work and will be missing in action for a little while, just like Rog. I suspect both the resume the battle very soon. I stay out of it mostly, unless WTE says something totally wrong, then I straighten him out.

            I am working on a modern western humor book called "Bull Rider" under this current Nume de Plume, Ricky Michael.

          2. sbj1964

            Funny I always thought Roger wrote Gay porn snuff scripts.Good luck with your book hope to see it on the NYT best sellers list.I'll buy it in paperback of course.

          3. Ricky Michael

            Hahaha, no. Barnes and Noble sent me a request to do a real book review for his work. Nearly all the reviews were from ID people who do not like him. I actually read the book and did a real review. You can tell which one was mine.

            People may not like him and his tactics, but fair is fair, at least read the work before posting trash. It was not all that bad for a first time writer. His ability with pros dwarfs mine. I am serverely dyslexic and I deal with special things that he does not.

          4. WTE

            I did not purchase it. As I have said before the local library was throwing out copies of his trash and I grabbed one and read it. IT SUCKED. It was way too predictable and boring

          5. Ricky Michael

            Ok, since you really did read it, then you earn the right to your negative opinion. You are not the target audience age group for which it was written either. That makes a difference.

        2. WTE

          Couple? Just because that stuid fuck stalks me does not mean we are a couple. He's a creep. Why will I be decimated?

          1. sbj1964

            It was a joke Wee ,aimed more at Roger,and his obvious man crush on you.Why do you think he stalks you?It's sad, but you are the closes thing he has to a relationship.Creepy,but true.The decimated part? what would you do for entertainment if you did not have that imbecile to make look stupid?What you don't understand is that Conservatards wrap themselves up in hate without it they are nothing.They are blinded by it,and like a snake trying to eat it's tail it will consume them.They are sad,ignorant,racist,sexist,and intolerant of others;that is why they fail.That is why the majority of America rejects they're party,and they're canidate.Red State people in general just are not that smart.The Christian bible,and it's ridiculous violent teachings make them that way.They are lost in this New America,and scared.Hate is the path to the dark side,and they travel to ruin.

          2. WTE

            Ok, I apologize I read the comment the wrong way. Actually if he was gone I would be able to enage in a good discussion. He is good for comic relief and it is fun to make his blood boil. I love pointing out how he fails as a chirstian.

            On a side note congrats on Obama getting another term. Not what I wanted to see not that I am a D or R I just wanted someone else to get a shot and that someone else I did not care for either. Anyways as a country we need to stop the fighting and band together as a country and fix OUR nation. Both sides fighting each other over which way is up has only brought us further down the rabbit hole

          3. sbj1964

            So why do you waist your time trying to educate Conservatards?They are hopeless,and never happier than when they have something,or someone to hate.Hate has made them strong with the dark side.There is no redemption for them they are becoming less relevant with each passing day.They offer nothing but a return to a past that was corrupt,and intolerant.They will become fossils on display in a history museum right next to Neanderthals.Good riddance in my book.When a group of sub-humans fails to adapt to changing environmental conditions extinction is imminent.

          4. WTE

            You have to remember even though you call them "sub-humans" they are still your American brothers. I don't agree with everything they do and I don't agree with everything liberals do. Matter of fact the only thing I can side with Liberals is with their stance on drugs, religions, and the environment.

          5. sbj1964

            The sub-human crack was referring to the fact that they act like creatures of hate,an undesirable aspect of modern Republican culture.If they want to be considered my American brothers as you put it,then they should start acting like it; instead of a bunch of Monkeys slinging shit at each other,and everyone else.They use to be the party of fiscal responsibility,and defense before the right wing christian Fun-Dah-mentalist American Taliban hijacked the party.

          6. Ricky Michael

            I like everybody. I'm not worried one bit about anything.

            Ricky MIchael

          7. sbj1964

            Yes RM I have read your past comments,and know where you stand on that topic.But as long as the Christian right controls the party there is no room for the now extinct Moderate republican.The separation clause is a good idea for everyone.And your parties radical religious agenda is killing the traditional message of the once respectable GOP.But if you guys want to double down on stupid it should make for an easy win for HILLARY CLINTON 2016 ! She is probably writing her acceptance speech now knowing the GOP could not even score an easy win.

          8. Ricky Michael

            "Christian Right" just a name to call someone.

            There are two distinct type types of religious people who are generally lumped all together and called Christians. There are the ones who “say” they are with lips service only and the ones who live it. I try my best to be in the second group, they are the real Christians. I find that those in the first group have hypocrisy as their battle cry. I want no part of that.

            Additionally, my religious beliefs have nothing to do with my political views. They never have. I am an exception perhaps.

      1. sbj1964

        That was entertaining RM.Like I'v said before a big fan of yours as well as Wee,Coggy,Patriothere,cwoof,and others merely trying to comprehend the Coservative mind set that seems to me so vile,and full of hate,racism,sexism,intolerance,and though they claim to be Christians most of the comments from roger,and many others on conservative blogs prove otherwise.With you,and very few others being the exception.To many your people come off as the party of greed,heartlessness,selfishness,and the party of the rich.For the rich,and by the rich.For anyone who seriously follows the teachings of Christ,and I quote"It is easier for a camel to pass through the eye of a needle than for a rich man to enter the kingdom of heaven.",or "what ever you do for the least of thee amongst you;you do unto me."Those are not Republican values.As you may be aware I am not a christian,but those are good words.I choose to live in an America where people care about equality,and do what is right for all people not just the privileged few,or the white/christian ruling class.PS I am white,but when asked what race I am? I answer Human.

        1. Ricky Michael

          I like you sir. And yes those are very good words, that I follow very strictly. I turn no one away, even the Muslims who need something from me.

          My economic views align on the conservative side, however, you might find it interesting that I do not wish people to remain poor and dependant on others for their support. My choice is to provide them all jobs and not hand outs. I have been working since I was ten years old. I bought my own first car by mowing lawns. I put myself through college, two degrees, by mowing lawns and working part time as a draftsman/illustrator. I am living proof of what can do done by people who have the desire to make a better life for themselves.

          I really am not all that upset with the outcome of the election. I know this, God makes the leaders of men what they are. I might not like it sometimes, but I live with it and accept it.

      2. sbj1964

        Hey RM,did you ever check on Roger,or are you going to wait until the neighbors start to complain about the smell?

          1. sbj1964

            So let me try to understand you are against personel welfare that helps people yet align yourself with a party that champions corparate welfare with huge tax breaks for companies like Exxon that made $31 billion in profits last year alone?To huge farm sindicates with subsidity money where they get paid not to grow food Like Monsanto? would rather tax the poor,and middle class rather than require GE,and many others corparations to pay they're taxes?This is not what your Jesus would choose.Infact if he came back today with his pro poor,socalist teaching of his past would you deny him because like Democrates he has compasion for poor?

          2. Ricky Michael

            Whose image is on a denarius, Caesar? Render unto Caesar what is Caesar’s. I am not against paying taxes. The problem is that if you believe that taxing the rich, corps included, will solve all our problems then you are doomed to be disappointed. We are now in such sorry shape that even if we just took not only their tax money but all their possessions away too, it would not even scratch the surface of our debt. Additionally, if you believe that the current leadership will leave the little guys like you and I out of the tax increases, you will be disappointed there as well. The tax man cometh, and right quickly.
            The answer to the problem is never going to be taxes. It is in promoting the very people you hate, the rich corporations who give jobs and pay checks out. Without them, we die as a nation.
            I will change my political allegiance to the liberal side as soon as they begin to promote business and their prosperity. We have to grow our way out. It is a fact that no one has ever taxed themselves into prosperity. This is the truth.

          3. sbj1964

            And yet still nearly every time there is a democrat in the white house,and a competent congress the economy by every study ever made, is better than that under the Republican parties leadership.It would seem your logic fails under the light of reality.Jesus was a liberal your God claims he likes liberals,and that he will make them fat.(A blessing by Yahweh's standard's)Republicans are bad for America.They are the party of ENRON less government oversight ring a bell?Yes with GOP policies a few people get mega rich,and when the shit hits the fan the American public gets stuck with the bill.The GOP quick personal wealth trumps the public good?Their policies have brought ruin,and disaster in the past.

          4. Ricky Michael

            Here is something that might interest you; the early Christians in the book of Acts lived like Communists. They had all things in common and each was given according as he had need. There are many things the liberal side does that I agree with, but the problem solving comes through strong businesses. Reagan was right. We did well under his leadership. No one in recent history has out done him.
            In my Church, no one is over looked. I am a member of the Church of Christ. We help our own and those outside the church too as much as we can. I will have given right around 30% of my take home pay for benevolence this year. Just curious, how much have you given to the poor and those in need this year?
            Your preaching at me doesn’t seem to fit does it? I suggest you examine yourself before you attempt to take the itty bitty spec out of my eye.

            All with respect of course. Maybe you have given more than 30%, you tell me.

          5. sbj1964

            30% impressive.Even your god only requires 10% sir you are a philanthropist.But as I have said you are an exception to the rule.I myself give nothing to religious institutions for fear that they would use the money to proselytize,and little to aid organizations that promote faith of any kind in their mission other than the Red Cross.You seem like a decent person,yet I still do not understand why you don't understand the Stan Lee Quote from Marvel comics Spiderman"With great power comes great responsibility." Money is power.And what is so wrong about asking those who have benefited the most from America from stepping up to the plate like many rich people are willing to do with the exception of the GOP Grover Norquist pledging puppets of the radical right.The GOP needs to move to the center,ditch the ridiculous christian social issues like abortion,gay rights,and raping the environment.Time to Toss the Cross,and return to governing the people.When it comes down to radical religion the GOP makes the PLO look like one's local PTA.

          6. Ricky Michael

            Yes, I agree, I am an exception to the rule. It matters to me, how I act. I do my best to live like the NT Christians did in the first century. My ideal world would be that everyone who can work does so and no government aid is necessary for anyone. We will be fine, it’s time to work together now. Also, our military boys need to be brought home.

            I have heard from Roger, he is fine.

          7. sbj1964

            Rogers OK? Well despite that I will try to have a good Sunday.Thanks RM,I may never be able to understand the conservative brain,and where the vile contempt they have for people who choose an America where we are all in this together,and we are our Brothers keeper.Your insight has been helpful,and I have enjoyed getting to know a you better.Keep Wee & Roger in line,as you do,and call them on stupid. Semper Paratus fidelis enduro.

          8. sbj1964

            Well at least liberals evolved,unlike conservatives who are still a bunch of harry apes sitting around a camp fire,worshiping magical bronze age gods,slinging shit at each other ,and every one else.While comparing who's ass is the brightest shade of red.That's how they pick their leaders.

  31. Loch_Nessosaur

    I wonder if this will indicate a return to stressing math and science in schools like it was in the 1960's when I was an itty bitty kid. And that was at a Catholic grade school.

  32. Negropolis

    I'm already tired of the narrative. The Beltway narrative is that since the GOP kept the House, that this means the president should come around and do another Simpons-Bowles-esque austerity measure. You know, 'cause "bipartisanship."

    Puh-leeze. I hope to see him put his boot up Congress' ass. It's time to steamroll those intransigent bastards. He needs to remind him that his head is going on Rushmore, and they can either get a piece of being a part of the history that is his two-term administration, or that we will obliterate them in the 2014-midterms.

    The sheriff is near…and he's back in town.

    1. memzilla

      We tried the bipartisanship thing, and the wingtards were all "Obama's not fixing anything," and that cost him votes.

      Steamroller time.

    2. BlueStateLibel

      No more bi-partisanship. Those losers had their chance and acted like dicks every step of the way. Bronco's got nothing to lose now.

  33. Terry

    Just noticed another tidbit: Mia Love, the black female teabagger republican running in Utah, has lost her race to the democratic incumbent, Matheson.

  34. ElPinche

    At my election party, I was the calm and collected one, while everyone else had panic attacks ("Romney's leading 13 to Obam's 2 EVs!!!, OMFG!!") . I had Nate's big board on my mac book. As the numbers came in, they just jived with expected and tossup predictions. Stay thirsty my friends.

    1. DemmeFatale

      Me too. Thanks, Nate.
      Except no party.
      Just me and a Manhattan.
      I knew Barry had this, but was more interested to see what would happen with my girl, Elizabeth Warren and my secret crush, Sherrod Brown.
      (What a bonus to see that idiot, Allen West lose!)

  35. Mumbletypeg

    The same people who want to vilify craftsmen of statistical logic-driven indicators like Silver are the ones who cry Foul and react with the same when confronted with Reality.
    My point is I'm flummoxed by the consistent denial exhibited by more than a few friends IRL who resolutely push aside any of the evidence-supported assertions made by stats wiz's like Nate — or, similarly: the rate of accuracy these perps eagerly hold in contempt for, you guessed it, our local meteorologists on the teevee.

    THe right-tard in particular I'm thinking of never wastes an opportunity to call out our weather reporters, whenever a forecast goes slightly (or caught-by-surprisingly) off-track as the day/ evening's elements manifest themselves. People like this take it *personally* that the art of prediction doesn't conform precisely in outcome to the projections by some top-notch analysts who are nonetheless offering an assessment, not a foregone conclusion. I've spent enough time in social circles hearing these and other creeps scapegoating practicers of this niche science to not be overall surprised at those waxing skeptical at Silver.

    1. TootsStansbury

      I work with people like that. Drives me nuts "it's going to rain at 3:30". I tell them to stop doing that to no avail. Then they bust on the forecasters when it doesn't in fact, rain at precisely 3:30. But then I am kind of a nerd.

  36. Lot_49

    I'm watching Sully on Colbert from last night: "There's a black man in power and he's got nothing to lose."

  37. mbatch

    Is there any hope–any hope at all–that the neocons will finally face reality and try getting something done for a change? We've still got that whole "fiscal cliff" thing coming up (and before Joe Walsh goes home, too).

    1. BadKitty904

      The 'wingers started ignoring reality some time back. The moderates *may* see the hand-writing on the wall and *may* come around. Ideally, they'll regain control of the GOP…

  38. Toomush_Infer

    God, I depended daily, sometimes twice daily on Nate over the last six months – he was the only one keeping me from feeling the Wonkette World had become Fort Alamo…..

    1. Callyson

      Twice? I admire your restraint–I got to double digits in the last week of the election. I hope Nate gets a nice vacation in, and a huge bonus check as well…

  39. Lot_49

    Now can we jump off the Fiscal Cliff® so the Bush tax cuts can die their well-deserved death, defense spending is slashed, and government revenues roll in?

    1. BadKitty904

      Well, grace and good sportsmanship have always been their calling cards.

      BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHA! (Sorry, after last night, I can't help it)

    2. FlipFlopFuck

      The douchebag on RW radio here, Chris Plant, is playing Soviet Marches…

  40. Incitefully_Joe

    In advance of the election return, there was a reassuring facebook circulating the facebooks, from a former member of Nate's old baseball sabermetrics league. The guy said that he ended up ragequitting said league, because Nate was SO GOOD at it and so obsessed with getting the numbers right that it stopped being stopped being fun to always get beaten by Nate Silver.

    I only hope that our political pundits will take heed, and follow that guy's lead.

    1. BigSkullF*ckingDog

      According to Boehner, the republican house is the one with the mandate. Or did he say man date?

  41. Isyaignert

    No lie – I was dreaming about cannabis being legal in Washington state, where I live, when I suddenly woke up and looked at the clock – it was 4:20!

  42. Spurning Beer

    Yesterday my wife got a call from the county Democratic Party to give a ride to the polls to a voter. It turned out to be an 84-year old woman — a white one! — who had never voted before.

    This morning, Florida is still waiting to fulfill Nate Silver's prophesy. Our county, though, went 75% for Romney. The fifty-point margin was one vote smaller than it would have been, though. Thanks, honey.

    1. emmelemm

      Thank you, thank your wife. Profusely. There really is no such thing as "my vote doesn't matter", even if you are in the reddest/bluest area there is.

  43. Redgyal

    The talk in the office is that Barry spent too much money on campaigning when we have massive debt…..because Mittens didn't spend a dime.

  44. BoroPrimorac

    Conservative women are pissed that the war on women stuff worked. Why did you have to vote with your pussies, ladies?

  45. Spurning Beer

    I just went to the Florida site to see if anything was moving with the numbers, and found something surprising: the statewide turnout was 70%, and a couple of counties broke 80%! Those are almost Soviet-bloc numbers.

    1. BadKitty904

      It truly was a MUCH greater voter-turnout than expected. The unexpected volume is one thing that's slowing up the count…

  46. Wadisay

    If I were Nate Silver, I would think about selling my endorsement of stuff. I would start with drill bits, plum lines and laser beams.

  47. vawhitemale

    Oh ye bitters always denying facts things that actually happened. why do you hate math and the truth so much?

  48. Spurning Beer

    Oh Jesus. I just saw that Roy Moore got elected again to his old job as Chief Justice of the Alabama Supreme Court. There's no telling how many commandments he'll have this time.

  49. HELisforHEL

    Happily, Linda McMahon lost resoundingly, yay liebral Connecticut. I may hate most of the down county corporate turds who live here, hate the traffic, hate the cost of living…but at least we're not overrun with the stupidz.

    1. vulpes82

      $100 Million dollars and two failed campaigns later, one wonders if Linda will take the damn hint. Why not run for Mayor of Stamford or something, if she really wants to be in politics?

  50. CommieDad

    I enjoy Nate's reviews of Polls. I also like the take the PEC does. With both those things in mind, I think we are way to obsessed with the polls. I think we should leave poll analysis to the Nate Silvers of the world, and leave issue analysis to passionate people on both sides. These passionate people would replace partisan hacks, also known as pun dents.

    Shorter: If republicans spent their media energy talking about issues in an honest way, they might have only lost a little.

    1. vulpes82

      Well, at least she only juuuuuuuuuuuuust squeaked by. That'll put the fear of God in her. Next time she might not be so lucky! I bet Marcus is still lightheaded.

  51. hagajim

    That fucking Nate Silver….who does he think he is after all…..Actually Nate, we all love ya. Helped us keep the faith – now don't let it go to your head.

  52. Simple J Malarkey

    OT Rough commute this morning. All the white guys in Rams and Tahoes were driving like fucking maniacs.

  53. Preacher_Griz

    with all this foreseeing and whatnot this Silver fellow is playing a Demon's game….the origins of which are rooted in the dark spirituals of atheism and devil worships…

  54. Lazy Media

    Here's what I posted about two years ago. I am no Nate Silver, but I did call the R primary and the prez election in advance.

    "Forget it, Mittens is already your 2012 nominee. It's his turn, and none of these other guys have a national organization (teabaggers are the lack of an organization). Dubya's run was set up WAY earlier than two years out.

    Obama over Mittens, 52-48, and the Dems take the House back."

  55. ElPinche

    Does that mean we can now exclude Ramussen and their random number generators from all poll analytics forward on?

  56. rebelyankee

    I can't even raise any snark about it, this is how much I love Nate Silver. REAL Math versus "the math" won unequivocally, with no bias (except that pesky liberal bias in all the polls).

  57. smellyal8tr

    Nigh on four years ago, Wonkette steered me to Nate Silver and I've been a devoted follower ever since. Repubtards don't like him because he uses "math" which is a "science" and is not something that is first dreamed by a "wizard". Instead, Repubtards call him "fag" and "gey". Good for Nate Silver and all his recognition. His computer model must be awesome and I'm sure his mom wonders what he does in his room all day…

  58. Veritas78

    How's this for attitude? Nate took the day off, leaving his last predictions just laying on the page, like a giant turd in the republican punch bowl.

    "You like polls? How 'bout THEM polls! I got the number." *
    * Obscure Good Will Hunting reference, starring two hunky Dems.

  59. urganda

    Chuck Hegel is a respectable Republican, a brave man who stood up to Bush Jr., and I would have voted for Hegel.

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