EVERYONE IS DUMB  10:10 am November 1, 2012

Sad Pundits: Why Won’t Insiders Tell Us Who Will Win The Election?

by Josh Fruhlinger

Six more days of this bullshitTHIS ELECTION, YOU GUYS! It is … confusing? Like, some people say that Barack Obama will win re-election, while others say that his opponent, Mitt Romney, will prevail! WHO ARE WE TO TRUST? Normally, of course, we’d turn to the literally of hundreds of people who are employed full-time by various old- and new-media outlets to report on and offer opinions about politics, because they know things. But as a survey of these sages in the Politico reveals, they’re completely at sea as well! You must click the “MORE” clicky in order to read the single greatest quote in a Politico article of all time, which reveals the utter bankruptcy of the pundit class. Then you can spend the next six days doing something productive and rewarding with your life!

Here it is, ABC News’s highly compensated reporter Jon Karl, offering an extremely clear explanation of why his job should not exist:

I think more than any other race I’ve covered this is one where both sides genuinely seem to believe they’re going to win. That’s different … Given that, it’s hard for somebody covering the race to make a call. I’m completely confused. I have no idea who’s going to win. And I usually have a sense of who’s going to win.

Oh no, reporters aren’t getting “inside scoops” from triumphalist and/or fatalist campaign staffers. There’s literally no other way to tell! Like if only there were people … surveying Americans on how they plan to vote? And those surveys could be aggregated and analyzed, somehow? In totally unrelated news, this Politico article was brought to our attention by your math and numbers boyfriend Nate Silver, whose Twitter feed is growing increasingly catty:

STAY STRONG NATE

Anyway, allow us here at Wonkette to tell you that we have zero “insider information” but we are reasonably sure Barry will win anyway. Now, go, shoo, read a novel or watch a movie or something and then read a newspaper next Wednesday to find out who won! (Just kidding, refresh Wonkette dot com constantly for election updates, THE OUTCOME OF THE ELECTION DEPENDS ENTIRELY ON YOU PAYING ATTENTION TO EVERY DETAIL AT ALL TIMES.) [Politico]

 
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{ 204 comments }

Barbara_ November 1, 2012 at 10:14 am

Nate Silver is my imaginary really smart boyfriend. I like when he tells me that less than 17% of people I meet today will think my ass looks fat in these jeans.

Chet Kincaid_ November 1, 2012 at 10:42 am

I pay $750 a year for Nate Silver's Sports Book Newsletter. I've made back $14 already with his picks!

Lascauxcaveman November 1, 2012 at 10:47 am

Between the two of you, then, I'd say Nate's the playah.

Tundra Grifter November 1, 2012 at 11:48 am

CK:

You can move on this game like it's already been played!

FIVE STAR pick of the year! Every week…

FlownOver November 1, 2012 at 12:17 pm

If you look around the poker table and don't see the fish…

Steverino247 November 1, 2012 at 10:52 am

Nice tits, too! 100%

HistoriCat November 1, 2012 at 12:06 pm

less than 17% of people I meet today will think my ass looks fat in these jeans

This is 100% an example of a situation which calls for pics.

MosesInvests November 1, 2012 at 12:21 pm

Barb, sight unseen your ass looks *fantastic* in those jeans.

Barbara_ November 2, 2012 at 10:36 am

Love ya, Moses.

MosesInvests November 2, 2012 at 11:35 am

Right back atcha, Barb. I want those Wonkette personals to get up and running, so I can advertise that I'm looking for a Jewish version of you.

Callyson November 1, 2012 at 1:02 pm

Nate Silver is the only thing between me and utter insanity. I have been so on edge since the disaster in Denver, and he is the only person who has kept me from losing it entirely. To wit:

Oct. 31: Obama’s Electoral College ‘Firewall’ Holding in Polls

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/

(please God please God please God…)

doloras November 1, 2012 at 2:58 pm

Just out of curiosity, what would happen if you did "lose it entirely"?

Callyson November 1, 2012 at 3:23 pm

You'd have to ask the good folks at the mental institution, to which I would be committed after I started running down the street screamingobscenities.More so.

ttommyunger November 1, 2012 at 7:41 pm

I've always pictured your ass out of your jeans, but that's just me….

Not_So_Much November 1, 2012 at 10:14 am

Joe Scarborough said his gut is saying that Nate Silver is a totally inept douchebag, because of 'math'. You can't escape that kind of science.

PsycWench November 1, 2012 at 10:18 am

Gut math = wishful thinking, so yeah, very cutting edge science.

actor212 November 1, 2012 at 10:23 am

The only gut math that should matter is "Gut empty + Food = Actor212 happy"

tessiee November 1, 2012 at 10:24 am

Also, "effeminate".

Lascauxcaveman November 1, 2012 at 10:49 am

Yeah, those skinny, effeminate guys never seem to be good with math and numbers and stuff. I mean, do any of them even own a computer?

Incitefully_Joe November 1, 2012 at 10:56 am

Meanwhile, my gut says that Joe Scarborough is the totally inept douchebag.

Also too my eyes, ears, brain, and voicebox say that too.

EnnuiThereYet? November 1, 2012 at 1:26 pm

My gut math failed when I tried to eat a 72 oz steak in Ft Worth.

Gleem McShineys November 1, 2012 at 3:12 pm

"Gut math" is a pretty good description of Scarborough's work: "I consume a bunch of facts and then I shit out some stinky useless turd later."

lulzmonger November 1, 2012 at 4:43 pm

I heard that The Internonator has actually made a $1000 bet with Silver that Willard will win.

At +70% odds? Only a fool WOULD'NT take the man's money.

freakishlywrong November 1, 2012 at 10:15 am

I ignore Fuck Toad and his fellow asswipe, Mark Halperin. This keeps me from cutting a bitch.

BoatOfVelociraptors November 1, 2012 at 10:33 am

Did you see them doing the mean girls bit to Mika over the binders thing? The sheer dickitude was palpable. You could smell the smegma through the screen.

DaniloTifoso November 1, 2012 at 10:15 am

The only razor I'm interested in is one with which to slit my wrists if Rommel wins.

Terry November 1, 2012 at 10:20 am

My boyfriend Nate Silver says that Obama has a 79% chance of winning.

BadKitty904 November 1, 2012 at 10:22 am

Please GOD…

actor212 November 1, 2012 at 10:24 am

But he's so slender and effeminate!

weejee November 1, 2012 at 10:26 am

Nerds who laugh last, laugh best.

actor212 November 1, 2012 at 10:29 am

Boy, don't I know that….

SorosBot November 1, 2012 at 10:30 am

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nate_Silver#Personal

"He is openly gay.[112] He has described himself as "half Jewish".[113]"

So sorry, ladies; and good luck, gay men. And yes, that "slender and effeminate" bullshit is just pure homophobia, with maybe a bit of antisemitism thrown in.

Terry November 1, 2012 at 10:37 am

I have no problem with one or more of my secret boyfriends being gay. The whole secret boyfriend thing is different than, say, stalking in that I never actually expect to meet or date him.

BadKitty904 November 1, 2012 at 10:42 am

Intelligence *is* pretty cute.

Lascauxcaveman November 1, 2012 at 10:55 am

I call bullshit. Gay? No possible way.

I mean, look at all the time he spends talking about sports.

Chet Kincaid_ November 1, 2012 at 11:19 am

He and Rachel are reverse-dating.

Callyson November 1, 2012 at 1:03 pm

His latest on the NYT website:

Oct. 31: Obama’s Electoral College ‘Firewall’ Holding in Polls

(as I said above, please God please God please God…)

Noisette76 November 1, 2012 at 1:33 pm

I'm feeling hopeful (word choice deliberate). Intrade has Bamz at 67.5% which is significantly better than where we were a week ago. Now that Christie has decided to throw his weight (ha! I'm here all week, ladies and gents!) behind Barry, which Barry completely deserves, because BF has been HANDLING this hurricane business, I think we're good. Unless the unemployment rate ticks back up above 8% tomorrow, in which case, oh god…

PubOption November 1, 2012 at 10:20 am

Romney will never do anything to warrant getting a poison pill from the Republican establishment.

tessiee November 1, 2012 at 10:25 am

If the stupid shit he's said and done so far hasn't turned them against him, I can't imagine anything else would.

Terry November 1, 2012 at 10:38 am

Romney isn't near the top of the stupid list for the GOP. Remember what other frickin brain surgeons they have in that party, including but not limited to Michele Bachmann and Alan West.

frrolfe November 1, 2012 at 11:22 am

rommel libel!

eggsacklywright November 1, 2012 at 10:16 am

"Well, look, at the end of the day…" Jesus I get so sick of hearing that shit.

widestanceromance November 1, 2012 at 10:23 am

Do you need someone to reach out and leverage a paradigm to inform the synergy of the low-hanging fruit at the end of the day?

eggsacklywright November 1, 2012 at 10:26 am

I hate it most when my low-hanging fruit gets wrapped around the axle.
A former boss once cracked me up with, "Here we go down the rabbit hole, only to find a can of worms."

BaldarTFlagass November 1, 2012 at 10:39 am

I can never reach the low-hanging fruit because the long pole in the tent forever keeps it out of reach.

bobbert November 1, 2012 at 1:21 pm

But, you can use the long pole to poke the camel's nose.

PubOption November 1, 2012 at 11:16 am

Have you had to listen to a business consultant recently?

widestanceromance November 1, 2012 at 5:02 pm

Worse. I read ad copy for a living. Going forward also too as well.

BoatOfVelociraptors November 1, 2012 at 10:35 am

"The fact of the matter is …"

If I had a nickel every time I heard that.

elviouslyqueer November 1, 2012 at 10:49 am

"Now here's the deal…"

MAKE. IT. STOP.

Weenus299 November 1, 2012 at 12:46 pm

One-Stop Shopping, where you can pick and choose …

not that Dewey November 1, 2012 at 10:51 am

I agree — it's got really bad optics, and the calculus is all wrong.

zumpie November 1, 2012 at 11:01 am

We need to be proactive instead of reactive and completely maximize our resources. Even if we do have a lot on our plate right now, we need to increase our deliverables during this cycle.

Oh, I'm sorry you feel that way.

not that Dewey November 1, 2012 at 11:07 am

But what could possibly incentivize us to transition to that archetype?

Weenus299 November 1, 2012 at 12:46 pm

Clearly you need to dialogue with your associates to clarify the issue.

HistoriCat November 1, 2012 at 12:08 pm

Every reply to this comment is an example of thinking outside the box.

not that Dewey November 1, 2012 at 12:48 pm

In the final analysis.

noodlesalad November 1, 2012 at 10:16 am

This shit almost drives me as crazy as "Some people believe in science-based explanations concerning climate change, some people don't believe in science. I guess we'll never know who is right!"

When one party has a history of being grounded (for the most part) in science and reality, and the other has a history of catering to people who believe cavemen rode dinosaurs and that God sees rape as a blessing, which do you think has the better ability to make predictions about the very-near future?

not that Dewey November 1, 2012 at 10:20 am

Dinosaur-rape-cavemen, obviously.

PubOption November 1, 2012 at 10:25 am

That last paragraph would make a good question for an opinion poll.

noodlesalad November 1, 2012 at 10:34 am

If I did opinion polls, the questions would be:

"Are you an undecided voter?"

(if yes) "What the fuck is wrong with you?"

SorosBot November 1, 2012 at 10:35 am

There also should be, "Are you REALLY undecided, or do you just want attention?"

One_who_wanders November 1, 2012 at 11:21 am

I like:
(IF YES)
Can you dress yourself without help?

weejee November 1, 2012 at 10:29 am

Madame Lulu from the Vieux Carré in N'awlins?

Incitefully_Joe November 1, 2012 at 11:03 am

Yeah, gee, no reason that we should maybe ignore the people that LITERALLY believe that dragons and unicorns are real, when it comes to matters of science, at least none that I can think of.

memzilla November 1, 2012 at 10:16 am

Two words will fix this problem:

PUNDIT THUNDERDOME.

You're welcome.

freakishlywrong November 1, 2012 at 10:18 am

PUNDERDOME.

actor212 November 1, 2012 at 10:21 am

THUNDERTIT

BadKitty904 November 1, 2012 at 10:22 am

DUNDERDOME?

BaldarTFlagass November 1, 2012 at 10:42 am

BLUNDERBUSS?

Gleem McShineys November 1, 2012 at 3:16 pm

DUCK! CHENEY!

kyeshinka November 1, 2012 at 10:30 am

Can we do nonsensical anagrams? How about DIDNT THUMP ME?

BoatOfVelociraptors November 1, 2012 at 10:46 am

A Pundit Batter Average in the Chyron would be goddamned amazing.

Weenus299 November 1, 2012 at 12:47 pm

Krauthammer slits Will's throat after pulling a concealed knife taped from under his wheelchair.

Swampgas_Man November 1, 2012 at 6:16 pm

But that still gives us "ONE MAN LEAVES". Can't we lower that average a little?

Allmighty_Manos November 1, 2012 at 10:16 am

Watching pundits make election predictions is like watching the Superfans make predictions about the next Bears' game.

tessiee November 1, 2012 at 10:26 am

Mike Ditka!

hagajim November 1, 2012 at 11:12 am

I'll make a prediction about the next Bears game – the defense will have to win it for them…..again.

Chet Kincaid_ November 1, 2012 at 11:26 am

This relentless Bears FUD makes the Baby Halas cry!

poperatzo November 1, 2012 at 5:05 pm

The Bears are so going to dominate Tennessee on Sunday, and anyone who says different is slightly-built and effeminate.

Oblios_Cap November 1, 2012 at 10:17 am

I'll be so glad when this is over and the Pundits can go back to sticking their heads in the sand.

boskolives November 1, 2012 at 10:25 am

Much more comfortable than up their ass, I assume

not that Dewey November 1, 2012 at 11:07 am

Go back to?

Weenus299 November 1, 2012 at 12:48 pm

Re: Pegs, tongue in a Manhattan.

PsycWench November 1, 2012 at 10:17 am

I heard there's going to be a very accurate poll on Tuesday, November 6.

eggsacklywright November 1, 2012 at 10:21 am

Let's hope, what with all the voting fuckery.

not that Dewey November 1, 2012 at 10:23 am

This Margin of Error was brought to you by Tagg Romney's Voting Machine Ventures™ LLC

teebob2000 November 1, 2012 at 10:25 am

Well, NOT counting the recounts.

Oh wait — I forgot we fucking CAN'T fucking recount fucking elec-fucking-tronic votes!!!

SayItWithWookies November 1, 2012 at 10:25 am

Haha — if you think the lefties are worried about voter fraud, imagine the reaction when millions of FOX viewers, who have heard nothing over the past month other than that Romney is gaining in every state and in every demographic everywhere, find out that (the people willing, of course) their candidate has been completely refudiated. Glenn Beck is already warning is dwindling, increasingly crazy audience that this one's gonna be stolen.

Jon_the_Red November 1, 2012 at 11:48 am

Ha ha, it's funny because not only is voter fraud an extremely rare occurrence (I mean, just think about risk vs. reward for the individual, and then ask if they'd still go for it or not), but the laws we've put in place to stop them disadvantage over 21 million Americans while being able to stop the schemes of 10. Not 10 million. Just 10.

weejee November 1, 2012 at 10:30 am

Turkeys may not be the only thing getting stuffed this November.

JustPixelz November 1, 2012 at 11:22 am

WRONG! A very nice Repubican email told me it will be on Wednesday, November 7 this year. So who ya gonna believe: the lamestream media or the internet?

JustPixelz November 1, 2012 at 11:26 am

They had one of those very accurate polls back in 2000. Turned out to be not so accurate* after all. But Dubya was appointed anyway.
___________________________________________
* I'd like to point out that Gore won the popular vote. He also won Florida if you consider butterfly ballot confusion and intent. he also won Florida if you count the actual fucking votes. My point is: The American people got it right in 2000. Five members of the Supreme Court got it wrong.

poperatzo November 1, 2012 at 5:05 pm

I wish I could believe that.

OneYieldRegular November 1, 2012 at 10:17 am

To be fair, Jon Karl's medium has canceled her seances temporarily due to the power outage.

PubOption November 1, 2012 at 10:28 am

I would believe her more, had she evacuated to somewhere that still had electricity.

Trannysurprise November 1, 2012 at 10:18 am

Nothing can keep me from voting next Wednesday!

SorosBot November 1, 2012 at 10:20 am

Are you going off an election guide in Arizona, in Spanish?

Trannysurprise November 1, 2012 at 10:23 am

Actually a very kind man called me to take my vote over the phone but he said I could also vote on Wednesday.

People are so helpful these days.

Arkoday November 1, 2012 at 10:18 am

BO by a fucking landslide.

You read it here first.

actor212 November 1, 2012 at 10:20 am

What he say

teebob2000 November 1, 2012 at 10:23 am

I'm going to endeavor to NOT judge the soundness of your prognostication by your avatar.

StillGoinGreen November 1, 2012 at 11:03 am

His avatar is a recent photo of the highest IQ inmate executed by the State of Texas this year.

Arkoday November 1, 2012 at 11:50 am

Actually saw that avatar in a movie – The Mad (Billy Zane's zombie flick); the picture on the restaurant menu cover.

Just you wait till I post in the new classifieds and scoop up all the hotties with this avatar…

Weenus299 November 1, 2012 at 12:49 pm

He will win by so much that Nate Silver will rename his blog Seven-Sixty-Five.

fuflans November 1, 2012 at 1:41 pm

i am using you people as my reason to continue living til next tuesday at i hope 7 PM eastern.

well you people and alcohol.

sbj1964 November 1, 2012 at 10:19 am

Well Mitt always has the supreme court.5-4 worked for W.That is his only hope.Thanks Sandy!

boskolives November 1, 2012 at 10:26 am

Just look at the grin (some may say grimace) on Mitt's face, he knows the fix is in.

weejee November 1, 2012 at 10:19 am

What we need is to have BoatOfVelociraptors digging for nefarious do wah ditty do-loops buried in the vote counting code – one for Bamz, 19 for Willard.

eggsacklywright November 1, 2012 at 10:24 am

Is Anonymous really on the case?
http://www.bradblog.com/?p=9672

How I'd love to see Rove squirm like the worm he is.

doloras November 1, 2012 at 3:10 pm

Remember that Anonymous is like the Jolly Roger – one boatload of pirates is watching Rove, clearly, while others are downloading porn or trying to take over Bahrain or something else.

BoatOfVelociraptors November 1, 2012 at 10:57 am

A consistency audit of the registration logs vs the tallies would expose blatant anomalies. If one precinct or machine consistently under votes for an office, that should stick out like a sore thumb.

not that Dewey November 1, 2012 at 11:10 am

Plus, Benford's Law. When people fudge numbers, they tend to assign a uniform distribution to the first digits of multidigit numbers, whereas Benford's Law tells us that the first digits of random multidigit numbers follow a power-law distribution. It's as obvious as Mitt Romney's spray tan.

weejee November 1, 2012 at 11:28 am

Da lies, da damnable lies, and da statistics?

widestanceromance November 1, 2012 at 10:19 am

Pundits spend huge amounts of time huffing each other's farts, only to come to the same conclusion: "It's looking like we're going to have to wait for the election to see how this all ends up."

BoatOfVelociraptors November 1, 2012 at 10:58 am

At 200 dollars a second, that's a lot of super PAC money in their pocket.

BerkeleyBear November 1, 2012 at 11:57 am

Translation – if I call this early and wrong, I never get to be in the "octagon of morons" again, and daddy needs his sweet, sweet coin.

HistoriCat November 1, 2012 at 12:41 pm

It's not like being wrong has ever hurt any of them before.

widestanceromance November 1, 2012 at 5:04 pm

If being wrong is right. . .OFF'sS whatevs.

eggsacklywright November 1, 2012 at 10:19 am

Corporate media needs an enema.

lulzmonger November 1, 2012 at 4:48 pm

…… & I'll gladly pay for as much Drano as it takes.

EatsBabyDingos November 1, 2012 at 10:20 am

Seems the pundit class has more "inside scoops" than a proctologist during Chris Christie's colonoscopy.

SnarkoMarx November 1, 2012 at 12:47 pm

Yeah. Thanks for that image. I'll be biting a cyanide capsule now.

actor212 November 1, 2012 at 10:20 am

Oh please! Obama in a landslide! This is all just desperation to make it look like they're being fair to the kindergarteners of the right, buncha candyasses…

YOU"RE LOSING! GET THE FUCK OVER IT!

SayItWithWookies November 1, 2012 at 10:20 am

Some say Romney will win; others say it's going to be Obama. Doesn't the truth lie somewhere in between?

actor212 November 1, 2012 at 10:28 am

Willard Hussein Obamaney will win

eggsacklywright November 1, 2012 at 10:29 am

David Fucking Brooks would probably agree.

PubOption November 1, 2012 at 10:31 am

Dialectics! You must be a Marxist.

Native_of_SL_UT November 1, 2012 at 10:49 am

I'm looking forward to the new Boehner/Biden administration myself.

oenspiek November 1, 2012 at 12:43 pm

<dumbass punditry>
We need a bipartisan solution, to break up the logjam in Washington.
<\dumbass punditry>

doloras November 1, 2012 at 3:12 pm

The electoral college will vote 538-0 for Michael Bloomberg!!!

SorosBot November 1, 2012 at 10:20 am

Sure, Nate Silver may say he can figure who is likely to win using polling data and numbers, but that's not very accurate compared to the traditional pundit's method of figuring out who will win the elections, what their gut tells them.

PubOption November 1, 2012 at 10:30 am

What about killing a chicken and examining the entrails?

eggsacklywright November 1, 2012 at 10:47 am

Looking at the sky and examining the contrails is less messy.

SorosBot November 1, 2012 at 10:53 am

Besides, if you want truly accurate predictions you need to go back to the original Druid tradition and examine the entrails of a human sacrificed under a sacred oak.

Rotundo_ November 1, 2012 at 4:45 pm

Most of the time the gut gives them a low rumbling gurgle and then they hit the toilet and that would be the end of it. So it comes down to reading the tea leaves (or in this case, intestinal gas), as to the best guess at the outcome. Somehow it seems fitting considering the really awful coverage of this campaign. Between trying to cover all "sides" of the issues and adding drama and ad sales for political spots the so called journalists really have done great work for their employers. Pity they didn't actually do anything for the fucking audience.

BaldarTFlagass November 1, 2012 at 10:20 am

"Mitt will win because SHUT UP!!!"

Loch_Nessosaur November 1, 2012 at 10:21 am

Karl Rove says Romney gets at least 279 electoral college votes. At least, that's what he's paid for.

Oblios_Cap November 1, 2012 at 10:21 am

The whole lot of "pundits" will some of the first to be up against the wall come the revolution. Only CEOs and Bankers form more useless and overpaid groups of "people".

SorosBot November 1, 2012 at 10:23 am

One nice thing about now living on the West Coast is that we probably won't have the traditional wait until midnight to find out who won. Though I guess that means the local bars don't get the same election-night profits they do back East.

BoatOfVelociraptors November 1, 2012 at 11:03 am

That's really kind of weird, sick and twisted when you think about it. Most of the country is EST or PST, but the swing states are all central. The political media is all east coast, so the "narrative" is written by those politico fucks at 3 am, and the pundits play he said she said I'm outraged for the next 12 hours.

bikerlaureate November 1, 2012 at 11:42 am

Most of Florida is Eastern.

SorosBot November 1, 2012 at 11:57 am

As is all of Ohio; I think the only central time swing state is Wisconsin. And Colorado and Nevada are the only other non-EST swingers.

BerkeleyBear November 1, 2012 at 12:03 pm

Wisconsin ain't swinging – not really. Neither is Iowa at this point. Only races worth watching in the CST will be McCaskill (I don't trust Missourians not to vote in rapey boy), Tammy Duckworth's stomping of Joe Walsh (for the lulz of his non-concession speech) and whether we get a miracle (Kerrey somehow winning Neb Sen or Bachmann/Ryan losing House races).

But the all important Mountain time zone, with ever so vital Colorado and Nevada (not really, but the media is foaming at the mouth in the search for something to talk about) is even an hour later than Central!

BerkeleyBear November 1, 2012 at 12:09 pm

It is a strange reality – by the time polls close out here, you pretty much know what will happen, but until they call California at 8:01 PST it won't be officially "over". At least the more politically wired in types won't start the heavy drinking/stop working the polls until they close locally (always something to work on) so at least some of the bars do just fine.

Especially where you are – lots of local political movers working on stuff like referendums/bond issues and shit up in the Bay Area, which translates to lots of binge tension build up and release drinking from my limited personal experience. This can be extensive since the referendum counts are often really close and not called until late or even the next day. But as a casual sports watching equivalent, yeah, not so much.

BoroPrimorac November 1, 2012 at 1:19 pm

Prop 32 passes in California and labor is pretty much fucked.

Noisette76 November 1, 2012 at 1:40 pm

Is there ANYTHING worse than Prop 32? Deliberately misleading cynical evil BS. The direct democracy/referendum system at its finest. Oh wait- Prop 8 was worse. We have a winner.

freakishlywrong November 1, 2012 at 10:23 am

Keeping it close allows for the much needed tampering of the machines. It's the only way the oily, lying Plutocrat gets it.

eggsacklywright November 1, 2012 at 10:31 am

My sources say you are correct.

Radiotherapy November 1, 2012 at 10:24 am

I'm going to stake my commentor reputation on this: it's fitty-fitty, the MSM wins!

BadKitty904 November 1, 2012 at 10:25 am

OT, but fairly comical for us geeklings:
http://www.wired.com/underwire/2012/10/hobbit-air

MosesInvests November 1, 2012 at 12:36 pm

Awesomeness! May the hair on your toes never fall out!

Terry November 1, 2012 at 10:25 am

I voted last night at an early voting polling place. A bit of a wait, but not too bad. The thing that annoyed the heck out of me, however, was the collective brain fart of the people with me in line. Along the wall were taped printouts, one for each voting machine, showing that they'd been calibrated at the start of voting. A mixed group of folks around me in line freaked out that the sheets all showed that no votes had been recorded yet. They took these calibration printouts to me that all the votes for the previous days of early voting had been erased. I tried to explain, but a slew of people left the polling place worried that the Koch brothers and Diebold had been up to shenanigans in a poll in the Maryland suburbs of DC.

LibertyLover November 1, 2012 at 10:55 am

I am working at the polls on Tuesday… we were trained on the handicapped machine (AZ still uses paper ballots thankfully!) … It's been a very enlightening experience. I urge everyone to work at the polls, you will learn a lot.

Terry November 1, 2012 at 11:16 am

My Mom worked the polls during most of my childhood. There would be a kids table set up over in the corner of the elementary school lunchroom that was the polling place and we'd color and draw while Mom worked. I still miss the big old mechanical voting machines. I loved the way the curtains swished behind you when you pulled the arm into position, then a big CHUNK sound when your votes were finalized as you pulled the arm back. There was a bit of drama to it. Now, I vote on a portable computer with a touch screen. Easy, but no grand noises.

Chow Yun Flat November 1, 2012 at 10:25 am

The pundits who don't know anything are united in attacking Nate Silver, who does know something. I think I have seen this movie before.

pdiddycornchips November 1, 2012 at 10:56 am

The job of political pundit is risk free. If they're wrong (they are almost all the time), they will still be on the TV the next day. If Nate is wrong, they'll gloat and dance on his grave.
I'll go with the guy who has something to lose if he's wrong.

Joshua Norton November 1, 2012 at 10:26 am

I’m completely confused. I have no idea who’s going to win. And I usually have a sense of who’s going to win.

Because Shut Up, Horse Race, that's why.

TheInternet November 1, 2012 at 10:28 am

Polls go up, polls go down – you can't explain that.

elviouslyqueer November 1, 2012 at 10:29 am

I predict that nearly 100% of these pundits are probably full of shit. STATISTICS DON'T LIE, SON.

delaney_blom November 1, 2012 at 10:38 am

Statistics don't lie.
Guns don't kill people.
People with statistics and guns lie and kill people.

tessiee November 1, 2012 at 10:29 am

"I have no idea who’s going to win. And I usually have a sense of who’s going to win."

Translation: We have to keep perpetuating the meme that the race is really close, so that when Mitt and his voting machine owning friends steal the election, it looks believable.

widestanceromance November 1, 2012 at 10:30 am

In my book, nothing is worse than a pundit talking about "pundants." Makes me feel murderous every time.

John Birf Society November 1, 2012 at 10:30 am

Nate Silver has his light-in-the-loafers "numbers" but DIck Morris says Romney wins in a landslide. True conservatives will take Dick over a pussy any day.

Zombie_Reagan November 1, 2012 at 10:37 am

Nate threw down the gauntlet–it's now put-up or shut-up time for Scarborough:
http://www.businessinsider.com/nate-silver-bets-j

SayItWithWookies November 1, 2012 at 10:56 am

Sweet. Someone should bet Sean Assity that waterboarding session that he long ago said he'd do, just to bring that back up again.

BoroPrimorac November 1, 2012 at 1:23 pm

Nate ain't taking shit from no one.

Joshua Norton November 1, 2012 at 10:37 am

Next Wednesday's Fox News chyron:

Romney comes in second!!! – Obama comes in next to last.

deanbooth November 1, 2012 at 10:40 am

But for the polls to be truly accurate, we'd need an army of "concerned citizens" to ensure those polled have a right to answer their phone.

pdiddycornchips November 1, 2012 at 10:42 am

This election comes down to this simple choice. Who would you rather have as leader of the free world? A lying corporate douchebag or a black guy?

ttommyunger November 1, 2012 at 7:45 pm

"….lying corporate douchebag…." Redundant much?

Indiepalin November 1, 2012 at 10:43 am

The only true predictor of electoral results is the ratio of Romney to Obama yard signs in your neighborhood.

banana_bread November 1, 2012 at 10:56 am

In that case the only winner is the lady running for state senate, because those are the only yard signs in my neighborhood. (We like her.)

Nah, who am I kidding, I live in Chicagoland. Nobody's gonna bother putting up a Romney sign.

fuflans November 1, 2012 at 2:03 pm

i have the only sign in ravenswood.

and i paid for it and it ain't for romney.

TheMightyHaltor November 1, 2012 at 10:52 am

False equivalency is falsely equivalent.

LibrarianX November 1, 2012 at 10:55 am

Kubler-Ross Grief Cycle, Stage One: Denial. Face it guys, Romney is losing.

neiltheblaze November 1, 2012 at 10:57 am

You know – it ain't like these clowns go to pundit school and graduate with a degree in Punditry. It's the one "profession" where you can be completely wrong just about all the time, but the Sunday squawk show bookers will still have you on their speed-dials.

lulzmonger November 1, 2012 at 5:04 pm

HEDGE-FUND MANAGER LIBEL!

SorosBot November 1, 2012 at 10:57 am

Anyway Obama has already won the Halloween costume contest and the kids' polls, so it's done: http://www.cracked.com/article_20139_6-bizarre-fa

DahBoner November 1, 2012 at 10:57 am

Obama tries harder.

Think about it, ladies…

LibertyLover November 1, 2012 at 10:59 am

I hate the question: "If the election were held today…."

It never is…

Oblios_Cap November 1, 2012 at 11:53 am

well it is on Election Day.

Never is such a strong term.

notreelyhelping November 1, 2012 at 11:19 am

But what worries me is the polling gap neglecting auto mechanics who ride choppers but also can recite T.S. Eliot's "Four Quartets" from memory. Why aren't we hearing about these people? Which way will they trend? Until those questions can be answered, we're all one-eyed blind men wandering in pea-soup fog, trying to describe an elephant and donkey by touch alone.

Dr. Nick Riviera November 1, 2012 at 11:39 am

The Conservatives tell me noted genius Karl Rove who correctly predicted an Obama win has declared Romney our new president. So pack it in, Nate what with your phony baloney numbers.

RufusTFirefly November 1, 2012 at 11:44 am

Meh. Who cares about polls. The election has already been pre-stolen for our new corporate overlords.

thefrontpage November 1, 2012 at 11:52 am

There is an adage in journalism–a very simple one–that is just as important–if not more important–today than it's ever been: Just report the news. That's it: Just report the news. This applies to newspapers, magazines, radio stations, television stations, websites, newsletters, whatever. Just report the news. News is simply the who, what, where, when, why and how of something that happens. We literally don't need–that's right, we don't need–crazy blowhards and talking heads cluttering up journalism on radio, television and the internets and in newspapers, magazines and newsletters. That's right–we don't need them. It'd be great to see about 90 percent of opinion-writers, talking heads and columnists just disappear. That's right—90 percent of them. Journalism–and news–would be better off. We can start the housecleaning with cable television, Fox News and Politico.

AncienReggie November 2, 2012 at 10:02 am

No, start with David Brooks. Then go after cable television, Fox News and Politico.

UW8316154 November 1, 2012 at 12:12 pm

In other words, Mittens bought the election, but Barry is refusing to play by the traditional rules and making a run for it anyway.

Detesticle November 1, 2012 at 12:20 pm

These pundits are going to flop-vomit when the first polls come in giving Florida and Virginia to Obama and Election Night ends immediately.

Naked_Bunny November 1, 2012 at 12:35 pm

I thought Obama called the election on account of rain.

Nostrildamus November 1, 2012 at 1:30 pm

Curiously, the Right didn't call Nate Silver all biased when he forecast a big win for the GOP in 2010.

Come here a minute November 1, 2012 at 1:35 pm

What the hell is Occam's Razor? Must be some nerd website.

DrunkIrishman November 1, 2012 at 1:46 pm

I am so fucking tired with this "it's a toss-up" line the media keeps tossing out. No, you dumb fucking pieces of shit. It's only a toss-up if you can find a viable path to 270 for Romney … and I don't mean by moving around states in a pretend way. Is Romney winning in Ohio? No? Then it's not a goddamn toss-up.

La_Cieca November 1, 2012 at 1:56 pm

"I'll believe Occam's Razor when Nate Silver starts shaving more than once a week."

fuflans November 1, 2012 at 2:18 pm

i remind myself that even in '08 they were all saying it was still a contest.

seriously, i feel like i'm living in a parallel universe. EVERY story – EVERY GODDAMN STORY – left and right says it's too close to call (this AM on bbc: 'romney campaign smells victory' and being given serious attention).

and yet we've got nate and sandy's political fallout (non stop positive coverage for bamz and the anti-FEMA comments from romney / ryan) AND chris christie and, you know, polls.

also egg is still speaking in public.

perhaps we are at the late 2008 moment when everyone was trying to hide palin's clothes grifting and meltdowns?

lulzmonger November 1, 2012 at 5:05 pm

Pundits: the hookworms of politics.

ttommyunger November 1, 2012 at 7:52 pm

I am seeing looooooooong lines for early voting here in Dumfukistan (GA,). NEVER seen anything like it before in my 42 years of residence. My thought: ever notice how you really don't value something too much until someone threatens to take it away from you? I'm thinking the R's fucked up big-time trying to play fast and loose with voting rights. Trying to deprive the blah's and brownz of their right to vote may have just been the impetus needed to get them off their asses to show whitey and thing or three. That would be so sweeeeet.

Negropolis November 2, 2012 at 2:31 am

The whole "Mitt positioned himself to be competitive after the first debate" was an entire invention of the Romney campaign that became a self-fulfilling prophecy when the media bought the narrative from them. Truth be told, this thing was never really close where it counted, and it's nowhere near as close at this moment as the media wants it to be.

It's completely possible and more and more likely by the day that Obama will largely replicate his electoral college win (maybe only losing one or two states he held last time) with the only real difference being that Romney may run up the score in the Deep South making the popular vote margin closer than in 2008, but still with Obama winning both the popular vote and the electoral college.

BaldarTFlagass November 1, 2012 at 10:38 am

It's kind of like having an empty 55-gallon drum as your best friend. You know it's never going to betray you, fuck around on you, or stab you in the back.

Terry November 1, 2012 at 10:47 am

…and you can turn that empty 55 gallon drum into a darn fine barbeque, so it's useful, too.

Not_So_Much November 1, 2012 at 11:04 am

Or a house, if our robotic overlords win next Tuesday.

BoroPrimorac November 1, 2012 at 12:30 pm

Why do you think he switched to politics? I bet he gets laid a hell of a lot more now than he did when he was covering baseball.

bobbert November 1, 2012 at 1:28 pm

Baldwin, also, too.

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