If you’re a Romney supporter, you likely look with sadness and disdain upon the current state of political polling, which has consistently failed for weeks to show your guy with a lead. In fact, the last time Mitt Romney had a lead in the RCP average, it was fall. Of 2011.
What to do, then? Well, you unskew the polls, that’s what!
Enter Unskewed Polls, which takes scientifically conducted polls and, with no particular methodology or reasoning, makes them pro-Romney.
Let’s put this in action!
The last Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Obama with a five-point lead over Mitt Romney, 48-43. When UNSKEWED, Romney leads by TEN POINTS! American points! How did this get unskewed? Let’s go to the tape!
Using the parameters of last week’s Reuters/Ipsos poll as a basis for a good estimate since this latest one didn’t release any internal data, the partisan makeup of the sample is believed to be similar and estimated at 52.5 percent Democrats, 37.6 percent Republicans and 9.2 independents among the 2,078 registered voters and 1,437 likely voters surveyed for the poll. The survey clearly under-sampled independent and Republican voters.
Clearly, based on your complete guesswork, the poll must have vastly oversampled blah blah blah, and so is wrong. How, then, to UNSKEW???
The Rasmussen Reports partisan data measured from hundreds of thousands of voters by Rasmussen Reports, which measures the partisan percentages at 37.6 percent Republicans, 33.3 percent Democrats and 29.2 percent independents. The difference means the Reuters/Ipsos poll over-sampled Democratic voters by 19.2 percent and under-sampled independent voters by 20 percent.
…Oh. You just take polling data from a Republican pollster, use it to correct for a skew you completely made up and then guessed at by showing no work, and then use it to convert the poll results into something you like. Never mind that, historically, there have almost always been more registered Democrats than Republicans. Scott Rasmussen has spoken, just like when he totally screwed the pooch in 2010!
Fuck. We thought this was like a magic trick or something, not someone’s D+ algebra project.
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I thought they only included registered teabaggers in the poll.
Nope, only white male landowners. The way the founders intended!
Preferably whilst playing golf—because the founders dug that, too!
"When you factor in that we 100% want this shit to be true, the results will look like we want them to and when we lose anyway it'll be due to ACORN and Black Panthers and dead people and immigrants…"
…and the sole enfranchised voter in the rotten borough of Old Sarum…
don't forget voter intimidation.
Yes, that's the #1 problem in this election cycle. Not enough voter intimidation. The more Obama supporters we scare away from voting, the more accurate our polling becomes.
We won't scare them away. Unless they have keys to a Lexus, we'll turn them away in person.
We will use this "data" to justify our armed insurrection after the Kenyan Kommie is re"elected" on November 6.
Needs more bell curves.
That's Lafferable.
Algorythm and blues.
Harry Reid laughs at Rasmussen polls.
Expert texpert choking smokers
"Well, I've wrestled with reality for 35 years, Doctor, and I'm happy to state I finally won out over it. "
~ Elwood P. Dowd
Select one:
1. Obama is a Kenyan commie.
a. Yes
b. True
c. Of course he is.
d. All of the above
e. AOTK
f. I can see Kenya from my porch
All Communist Elephants are Kenyan, but not all Elephants are Kenyan Commies…
d. NONE OF THE ABOVE!
It's a trick question, because he's a Kenyan commie socialist muslin nazi, otherwise it is an incomplete answer. You can't leave off all those important details!
d. All of them, Katie.
Really, all poll participants should be 100 percent Republican. Then maybe we see what they really think about Mitt Romney.
Still only be polling less than 50%.
Statistics – another science republicans sneer at.
It's even more basic than that. Math is an entirely foreign concept to Republicans.
Yes. "All my friends are teatards/there are lots of people like me" is evidence enough that EVERYONE must be.
If "Dick" Morris said it…
More alternate realities for sad republicans.
This is certainly a Brave New World of science. I can now conclusively demonstrate not only that Jesus rode a dinosaur, but that I am riding one right now.
Whoa, kewl dude!!!
Yummmm. I love skewed dinosaur.
Bronto Burger, anyone???
Wow, and I only have a pony.
I have a '07 Triceratops for sale, low milage.
"Well, it's a living!"
Silly you! That's no dinosaur – that's Rafalca in drag!
so THAT'S what's between your legs…
Almost the only thing, sad to say.
Surprisingly, there is also a direct correlation between Unskewd Polls and The Onion Polls.
So Nate Silver doesn't know what the hell he is talking about? I doubt it.
Nate Silver works for librul eeleets NYT, so there (nevermind the fact that he has closely predicted the outcome of the 2008 and 2010 elections).
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/…
Whoo hoo!! 77.6% chance of an Obama victory… and climbing!!
His baseball stuff is so-so. But yeah, not starting at 538 to break it down is like not starting with Wonkette for your yuks.
But Bill O'Reilly just stated last week he has never heard of Nate. So clearly he doesn't matter. Just go with Rassmussen, who is never wrong.
Will this work with my bathroom scale?
My scale weighs in kilograms since I think I bought it from a jailed drug dealer. So I convert the kg into acres, then torque, then to pounds. The results prove I weigh the same as in college. But I'm a believer in technology, so I use Lotus 1-2-3 to do all the math.
Ooohhhh and my bank account????!!!
Welcome to Fantasy Island!
Silly sheep. this is part of a dis information campaign. This shit will give them cover when the election is over and they won because of polling machine hacking. See Ohio 2008 for an example. ( this is a completely fact free assertion. Well, they did it first! )
WTF?
No, seriously, WTF?
I hate to break this to the tender little hearts of the loyal opposition, but the reason the reality community's polls interview more Democrats than Republicans is because–gasp!–there *are* more Democrats than Republicans. Given what the campaign has been like this year, that's completely understandable…
Math has a liberal bias!
Don't even start on the athiest evils of set theory… (W.T.F?)
God is infinite.
Because of recursion and algorithmic set definitions you can define multiple infinities.
An infinite number of infinities.
Having more infinities than god is blasphemy.
Q.E.D. (W.T.F.)
And biased liberals have math.
I think that Fox Nooze and the rest of the noise machine should have just pretended that Bush is still president and that he is polling with 112% popularity.
Romney camp: "We won't let Polls dictate our campaign."
Wow. When you feel you have to 'unskew' a Rasmussen pol to show your Republican has the advantage, you are
skewedscrewd.Crazy timing. I just happened on that site a few minutes ago and thought, "WTF is this?"
Then I thought, hmm, maybe I'll send an email to Wonkette and see if they can make sense, (or snarky fun) of it.
Yes or no question, have you stopped beating your wife?
Aerodynamics and arithmetic surely aren't their strong suits. (And don't call Mitt Shirley.)
Wonder how that Akin / Gingrich press conference is going on right now?
Perhaps Gyro Gearloose could help with this problem and educate the repubs.
Romney is polling well among those likely to be fucking morons.
If you assume that Democrats won't vote at all, and that all Independents and Republicans vote for Romney, I come up with:
Romney: 100% Obama: 0%
Careful Jesse, what with your high-fallutin' math-y analysis and scientific methodology. If you go confronting number scrunchers with their erroneous ways, they'll have no choice but to
admit their willfully obstructive tacticsdouble down on stoopidity production.Clearly the overwhelming majority that are voting for Obama is skewing the results. Needz more voter ID sampling.
Or voter suppression.
Rasmussen Reports, which measures the partisan percentages at 37.6 percent Republicans, 33.3 percent Democrats and 29.2 percent independents.
Measured by what–a magic wand?
A dowsing rod, maybe?
I believe the measure they're using is furlongs, multiplied by the drag-coefficient of a tortoise at maximum down-hill velocity, divided by $100 in my back-pocket for every extra percentage point.
Got it?
Statistics. How the fuck do they work?!
However you want them to.
The data goes in, the results come out. But not necessarily in that order.
I'm working on a PhD Thesis along the lines of "What if we held an election and nobody voted"
In further newz, Romney has locked up the batshit ninny vote by over 109%. Must be some political creation science, like Amana Radaranges.
I went to high school with her!
I like Nate Silver's polls, cuz he uses Kenyan Points.
I love the smell of panic in the morning.
If stuff like this keeps them from molesting children, we should let them do it.
Statistics is hard.
Probably.
Um…Don't Rasmussen's own polls have Obama in the lead right now? (Yes.)
I stumbled across this a couple of days ago and the most humorous part which I can't seem to find now was the part of the site where they were saying that the purpose of the high polling numbers for the president was to provide cover for the extensive anti-Romney riots that would erupt when Rmoney wins.
Yeah, there's a man who sparks strong emotion and passion among voters. Anti-Romney riots, indeed.
I can't remember who it was now, but back in the distant past when still in the UK, I remember a Labour Party election candidate complaining to the national press about his low polling numbers, by suggesting that his Tory opponent was, "stirring up apathy around the constituency, and it had to stop".
Priceless.
Well, if anyone could stir up apathy, it would be Romney. Unless it was that other feller, can't recall his name, started with a P, I think.
Math is hard!
This is too funny. As an example of how the mainstream media is in the tank for Obama, "Unskewed Polls" gives us the following: "The Media Research Center recently documented that Romney got 86 percent negative coverage during his trip to England, Israel and Poland last week."
Yeah, of course that's media bias. The fact that Romney's performance on that trip was an unmitigated disaster has nothing to do with it.
I say again: Welcome to Fantasy Island!
Smiles, everyone! Smiles!
De plane, boss, de plane!
Someone open de windows!
The Republican Party: Not letting what people think get in our way for over half a century. We don't care, we don't have to.
Hell, at least according to one poll (just one, so take it with a grain of salt) Romney is now only barely leading among the olds even:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/24/us-usa-…
I don't want to get overconfident, but HA HA!
Republican math is hard. And stupid. Face palmingly stupid.
All I know is that my tracker boyfriend Nate Silvers said Obama 70-30 this weekend, which is all I have ever said would be the outcome ever ever ever. And I like those numbers, so in the spirit of Republican fuckery-nonsense-knowledge, I will believe what I want and run with it.
That's Obama's chance of winning; you have to scroll down a bit to see what Nate thinks the election results will actually look like (currently about a 3 point spread).
HMM THAT sounds like FACTS. Nope, don't want none of that – I SAID I was going all Republitard here, so, no.
Another way to unskew a polling, is to call people only on a landline phones. Who uses landlines? Oldsters, who tend to be more conservative about things. That's how Rasmussen polls.
Frankly, I think the Republicans settled on a weak candidate, because none of their really good guns wanted to go against the blah.
"Let the Mormon kid in there. He can't win in an incumbent black guy's year, anyway."
Do they have any really good guns???
We're talking about Republicans. They're armed to the fucking teeth!
To and too is fore , sheeple.
More proof that there are aliens from an alternate universe among us, where trickle down economics work, white makes might makes right, job creators actually create jobs before padding their bank accounts, and New Gingrich is Moon Governor For Life!Someone tell NASA to stop wasting money looking for Martians. It's hardly an accident that Unskewed Polls is an anagram for Pukes Doll News!
Elsewhere, I have seen a new talking point among right-wing trolls is to claim that all the polls are "oversampling" Democratic voters, and so really Romney is winning. I wonder whether this site is the result of that bullshit, or the source of that mean.
Either way, no you idiots, the reason why these polls count more registered Democrats than Republicans is that there are more registered Democrats than Republicans.
But it is nice, after all the actual harm caused by right-wing ignoring of facts regarding climate change, evolution, and the combination of the existence of imaginary weapons of mass destruction and the ease and necessary logistics for invading and occupying another country to deal with the Presidents' daddy issues, to see a case where their willful denialism will only harm themselves.
Muammar Gaddafi had a similar polling methodology, I’m sure his excellent approval ratings were a great comfort to him as they beat him to death.
beaten to death in a rage , but with love and respect
…and what about the poll data his supporters shoved up his ass?
The polls have a way of shutting down when they're legitimately skewed.
Also, 90% of unskewed polls show that Santa Claus is bringing them a pony.
So that's what Bay Buchanan was yammering about this morning. You know your campaign is fucked when you say to yourself "John Sununu is unhinged, lets send in a Buchanan as the calm voice of reason."
I'm cool with them being completely misinformed about their standing as we head into the election vortex.
The website looks like it was prepared using HTML for Dummies. Let me summarize: ROMNEY, ROMNEY, RYAN and then a web page on how to improve your credit score.
Pollster are obviously over-sampling individuals who are not drooling and in a catatonic state.
Did you know that if you play the polls backwards, Romney wins in a landslide?!
This is reminiscent of when the DEMS jabbered on about pixel counts and photoshop all in an effort to deny the fact that Rep. Anthony Weiner tweeted a pic of his dong.
ZOMG, you're totally right! Both sides really do do it! You've just changed my entire worldview! My life to this point has been naught but a lie!
Thank you for helping me to see the light!
I have always been a fan of the Gentleman's F, but there is no way this earns a D+. This is basically handing in a creative writing assignment as your statistics project.
Statistical Theory: It's just a theory!
I get it! Statistics are just another way of forcing a humanist agenda on everyone
I love you, but you can improve on this by not repeating their mistake of confusing voter registration with party self-ID in polls. Darlings.
Needs moar smoochy-smooch pretty please.
According to TheFrontPage Polling Company, the world's most reliable, scientifically-accurate, politically-accurate, culturally-accurate, academically-accurate polling company, according to 498,669 people polled in every state and territory in the United States, an overwhelming majority, 98.9 percent, of those polled, stated that Unskewed Polls' employees are a bunch of biased assholes.
Wait until we get to the Unskewed Elections: Romney Landslide!!!!!…..
Polls schmolls…what I wanna know is if the unskewed polls are right and Rmoney wins, how do we get unscrewed?
Before we signed up for this class, we are assured there would be no math.
Quite happily for these idiots (Unskewed but Still Screwed) Intrade is running 70 – 30 for Mr. Obama.
They can bet the ranch on (r)Money!
"Romney more popular than fake novelty vomit"
WHERE DO THEY FIND THESE PEOPLE???
You know, normalizing for poll bias is generally done with error bands. This would make sense if the normalization were done with some other unrelated instrument except for the fact that it is at odds with accepted voter demographics and it uses Rasmussen Reports, who are known for a bit of the old slop in cypherin' and statistical interpretatin' department themselves.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasmussen_Reports
So I say the Gemlike Flame Polling organization finds that there are only two registered Republicans on the north American continent, and one of them is hiding out in Cancun till that little tax issue dies down.
Normalize that.
The best part is these clowns take Rasmussen's made-up party I.D. numbers ( they can't be from raw data, as Ras uses them to adjust the raw data), and apply them to other polls to get numbers far more favorable to Romney than even Rasmussen has.
Currently , Rasmussen has Obama up by 1, so they must be part of the liberal polling conspiracy as well. Time to start adjusting poll numbers by measuring the number of Obama yard signs in your neighborhood as compared to what you remember from four years ago. Foolproof.
blah bias.
If you like MITT, call 1-800-123123. If you prefer the annointed one, nobama, you can call, but our lines are full.
now i want to know more about that movie.
None of the polling matters, because they Repubs have just disenfranchised all the Poors and Coloreds so they're not going to get to vote anyway
There's got to be a way to make this work for that climate change nonsense.
I love this article so hard. ^_^
"The difference means the Reuters/Ipsos poll over-sampled Democratic voters by 19.2 percent and under-sampled independent voters by 20 percent."
Looks like someone finally figured out how to open the windows on the Arithmetoplane!
Just to show how on top of things they are, their sister site "Romney2012" headlines "the latest news". The newest posting is July 1,2012.
Check out the racist image on the link: Obama as Urkel. They picked the only black person (note: NOT a real person) they could connect with.
Now that's racial.
Rmoney is winning !!1! A full 50% of the folks who would vote for him could stay home on election day and he would still win in a landslide. Pass it along.
The only thing that matters to the Republicans is that someone in PA with a bible in his lap and shotgun in hand believes this is true.
Believe the world is flat? There's an app for that!
Using this same math, they "unskewed" Romney's income tax rate to be 127%.
Huh, whaddaya know … a similar UNSKEWING of the 2012 electoral college projections (which seem to concur that Willard is focusing like a laser on getting crushed by Obama even worse than Johnny Wet-Start was in 2008) does not appear to be available on unskwedpolls.com for some reason.
IT IS A MYSTERY.
There are more Democrats than Republicans…I just wish more of them would vote consistently.
BTW, just so everyone knows, both Gallup and Rasmussen oversample Republicans. You can tack on an additional nearly five points for each when you read them.
Try to imagine the cat-ladies and wheelchair-bound olds responding to pollsters. I'm an old and retired and I don't have time to fuck with some dickwad pollster. If all poll responders were assembled together, how long would it take for the chant: "One of Us" to break out?
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