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Worse things could happen, like six comets hitting Earth, maybe.

There are several billion polls out there variously dropping coy hints about a Ron Paul win, a Mitt Romney win or that more apocalyptic outcome, a “Santorum surprise,” GAH, but let’s check in with poll nerd king Nate Silver: Mitt Romney has a 42% chance of winning and everyone else has less, with the important caveat that Iowa’s schizophrenic Republican voters have been off meds for months now and it’s possible that poll averages mean nothing since Saturday’s Des Moines Register poll found that 41% of likely caucus-goers are still sort of weepy about their choices and continue to waffle over whom to support.


  • Mittens said he was going to “win this thing,” and then excitable political reporters assumed “thing” meant Iowa since HELLO IOWA IS THE ONLY THING ON EARTH right now, and Mittens was forced to clarify that he does NOT think he will win Iowa, just “the nomination,” BOO. Please confine your soundbites to the current news cycle, to avoid confusion. Romney then crushed a small child to signal that he understands.
  • Hahahahaha, Rick Santorum called Ron Paul “disgusting” without any hint of irony.
  • Newt Gingrich admits to making a mistake! What was it? “I made the amateur mistake of having two compound sentences,” he said, which means that he thinks he might still win the caucuses, since Republican voters are indifferent to poor syntax.
  • Rick Perry thinks Alaska is in Arizona.
  • Most importantly of all, WHAT HAS AMERICA’S TOP POLITICAL EXPERT SARAH PALIN FIGURED OUT ABOUT THE IOWA CAUCUSES: “Michele Bachmann isn’t going to win.”

All of which is moot, since Barack Obama’s pollsters have already declared him the only Republican capable of winning the Iowa caucuses, the end. [Five Thirty Eight/ Des Moines Register]

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