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We already know Lisa Murkowski will run on a third party Write-In Ticket. What we don’t know (yet) is: Will she defeat man hunk Joe Miller? Nate Silver and his math-numbers say: Sure, why not?

Can Ms. Murkowski win? Sure she can. There is plenty of precedent for write-ins being elected to the Congress, although fewer have done so successfully in recent years. Meanwhile, a poll by Public Policy Polling found Ms. Murkowski getting 34 percent of the vote against Mr. Miller’s 38 percent and Mr. McAdams’ 22 percent. Private polling has also shown Ms. Murkowski running closely with Mr. Miller, according to The Hotline.

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