According to the The Hotline, anonymous Democratic insiders are saying they think they will hold onto the House this election. According to Politico, anonymous Democratic insiders are saying they do not think they will hold onto the House this election. “[S]senior Democratic strategists say they’re not only likely to keep the House, but they believe the GOP won’t come close to gaining the 39 seats they need to take over.” And also: “Top Democrats are growing markedly more pessimistic about holding the House, privately conceding that the summertime economic and political recovery they were banking on will not likely materialize by Election Day.” Either these Democrats are bipolar, or somebody is bad at journalism.
A Democratic pollster working on several key races said, “The reality is that [the House majority] is probably gone.” His data show the Democrats’ problems are only getting worse. “It’s spreading,” the pollster said.
National Republicans maintain that the midterms won’t be like the Pennsylvania special election, held in a district where few voters characterize themselves as independents. Indeed, Democrats have lost independent voters’ confidence, and nationally, those voters are expected to break more toward the GOP. But models matter, and right now Democrats’ models are inspiring more confidence than Republicans’.
So who here is right? Are Democratic insiders secretly pessimistic, or are they secretly optimistic? Or perhaps these stories are based on two different small handfuls of Democrats these journalists drink with, and thus sweeping generalizations about the entire party organization are not valid?
NO. According to our sources, top Democrats are actually lizard people, and thus they know for a fact they will hold the House, because all the Republicans running against Democratic incumbents right now are lizard people too and will switch parties if elected to caucus with their lizard friends. [Hotline / Politico]