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ILLITERACY WILL PREVAIL

Important Crime Statistic Is Just A Frequently Retold Lie

This squirrel flunked third grade.Hey did you know that if you are a failure at third grade, the government just assumes that you’ll be a criminal forever? No? Well good, because that isn’t true anyhow. For many moons, Democratic candidates have repeated this old saw about states using third-grade reading scores as a predictor for how many prison beds they’ll need in 15 years. This sounds like exactly the sort of sad, spooky metric that governments would use to determine how doomed its citizens are, but apparently nobody actually uses it.

Barry R. Green, director of Virginia’s Juvenile Justice Department, said that when officials draw up six-year plans for how much prison space the state will need, they rely on factors that include arrest and conviction trends, but not test scores or any other education data. A policy group convened at the end of the process discusses general social issues, Green added.

Well that is not very chilling AT ALL.

We heard that the National Furry Convention uses the most recent general election returns to determine where they should hold their next quadrennial meeting. Reddest county in America wins. Tell your friends!

In Politics, Fact, Fancy Can Blur in Keystroke [Washington Post]


11:36 AM on Thu June 4 2009
By Sara K. Smith
3580 Views

  1. SayItWithWookies says at 11:41 am, June 4th, 2009

    Okay, but Yale still uses the third grade failure rate to determine how many legacy admissions they’ll need space for in nine years.

  2. ManchuCandidate says at 11:44 am, June 4th, 2009

    I know 3rd grade math test scores are a pretty good indication of who gets laid more often in high school. Unfortunately, there is no direct relationship between high math scores and lots of action.

  3. Wet Blanket says at 11:46 am, June 4th, 2009

    Sounds kind of boring, actually. Maybe this prison-futures-estimation could be a good job for Meghan McCain?

  4. x111e7thst says at 11:46 am, June 4th, 2009

    If officials had any sense they would correlate future FurryCons with changes in patterns of dog ownership before making any hasty decisions about prison space.

  5. Noodle Salad says at 11:47 am, June 4th, 2009

    In Virginia, they figure everyone will be in jail at one point or another anyway, so no need to get all fancy with the mathamatatics.

  6. 19kevin8 says at 11:47 am, June 4th, 2009

    After yesterday’s flurry of furry news… sigh… sad and boring and slow news day.

  7. Beau Radley says at 11:47 am, June 4th, 2009

    ManchuCandidate: there is a correlation, but it is inverse and geometric.

  8. The Rev. Yevot says at 11:49 am, June 4th, 2009

    ManchuCandidate: Au contraire! There is an direct negative linear correlation between one’s math score and the action one gets (I know ’cause I calculated it to figure out why I never got laid in high school).

    And don’t they just hold the annual furry con in Lindsey Graham’s back yard?

  9. Blender says at 11:51 am, June 4th, 2009

    And you especially can’t use the data from California schools, because I skipped the 3rd grade, which obviously skewed the data from the control group downward into the toilet, which explains why 80% of Californians should be incarcerated if they aren’t already.

  10. Scarab says at 11:53 am, June 4th, 2009

    So something I never heard of isn’t true? OK, thanks.

  11. Monsieur Grumpe says at 11:54 am, June 4th, 2009

    I believe that is the squirrel that ate half of my deck and some of the lead flashing on my stack pipe. I also know he’s not ripe yet because he’s not red thanks to some very intelligent Wonkette poster. Thanks Mark Trail or whoever you are.

  12. Hey, I know that squirrel. He breaks into my outdoor birdseed container on a weekly basis.

  13. Is it International Talk Like A Pirate Squirrel Day already?

  14. WhatTheHeck says at 11:55 am, June 4th, 2009

    Newborns DNA now determine whether the state will allow an infant to live for the sole purpose of paying taxes in adulthood.

  15. Min: Are your nuts presently being hijacked?

  16. windupbird says at 12:02 pm, June 4th, 2009

    That is bizarre. My daughter’s standardized test scores from third grade got her into weekend classes at Milton Academy for the past few years. That also struck me as sort of random…..she’s very bright, I’m just glad she tested well on that particular day.

  17. MarieDeGournay says at 12:05 pm, June 4th, 2009

    Whew! Thank God I stayed back in the second grade!

  18. SayItWithWookies: “Okay, but Yale still uses the third grade failure rate to determine how many legacy admissions they’ll need space for in nine years.”

    Naw, those kids go to places with names like “country day school” and start getting gentleman’s C’s from first grade. Legacy kids don’t flunk.

  19. Lascauxcaveman says at 12:07 pm, June 4th, 2009

    Naw, they just stopped using third grade scores as an indicator of future criminality because these days the really rotten third graders have already dropped out and are selling crack, robbing liquor stores and waging gang warfare. The ones who have stayed in school are gonna be alright. (A little scared, maybe, but alright in the long run.)

  20. zenferret says at 12:07 pm, June 4th, 2009

    ManchuCandidate: Oh there is a direct inverse correlation.

    See I used the fancy proper mathematical words so you know I didn’t get laid much.

    Beau Radley:

    So you neither eh?

    The Rev. Yevot:

    So I’m amongst peers.

  21. Steeevyo says at 12:08 pm, June 4th, 2009

    Who the fuck cares? David Carradine is dead. Am i banned now?

  22. Monsieur Grumpe:

    I think that squirrel has been up in the parking lot of my apartment building, too. He ate the wiring on the top of my car’s engine FOUR times until my mechanic wrapped all the wires in flex conduit. Could have been a rat, too, I guess, but I prefer to think it was a squirrel.

  23. dave666 says at 12:12 pm, June 4th, 2009

    I can’t even count the number of times I have gotten laid. ……see what I did there

  24. Naked Bunny with a Whip says at 12:14 pm, June 4th, 2009

    David Carradine is dead.

    Ah, jeez. Now my dead wife will be stalking him in Heaven and/or Hell.

  25. paintitblack says at 12:15 pm, June 4th, 2009

    Seems like some politician’s 3rd grade test scores predicted that they should be in jail simply for parading teh stooooopeds or teh crazies for far too long. Bachman, Palin, Inhofe, Todd Aiken et al: I’m looking esp at you. Also. Wink.

  26. thefrontpage says at 12:16 pm, June 4th, 2009

    Apparently Virginia has been using third-graders for years to design its road system in Northern Virginia.

  27. DollarStorePregnancyTest says at 12:25 pm, June 4th, 2009

    zenferret, et al: ditto (though having access to booze in high school can get you pretty far)

    dave666: wakka wakka wakka

  28. GinnyRED57 says at 12:25 pm, June 4th, 2009

    Perhaps the Furpublicans are actually being controlled by this, rather than their stupid old Talking Points, which is so 90’s anyway.

    Bonus: it’s called a Pluff, which may be a clue since the White House is controlled by one, also!

  29. smashtheduck says at 12:27 pm, June 4th, 2009

    Noodle Salad: That’s due to the much more accurate corollary: No pussy in high school= asshole cop
    thefrontpage: Finally! An explanation for Jermantown Rd.

  30. Rev. Peter Lemonjello says at 12:30 pm, June 4th, 2009

    I thought Virginia used a mixture of Algebra and the paper bag test for these statistics….much like Wonkette’s Win Of The Afternoon.

  31. zenferret says at 12:42 pm, June 4th, 2009

    GinnyRED57: Didn’t he get Obama elected? David Pluff?

    smashtheduck: And the Seven Corners intersection where I live

  32. Mad Farmer Manifest says at 1:12 pm, June 4th, 2009

    I know that squirrel. He’s why I bought my cat body armor.

  33. GinnyRED57 says at 1:52 pm, June 4th, 2009

    zenferret: And when you pet him, he smiles and looks happy and sends you to Muslin countries. But don’t piss him off, or Happy Fun Plouffe disappears YOU.

  34. Nerdalicious says at 3:34 pm, June 4th, 2009

    Bandito Squirrelo

  35. Mr Blifil says at 3:53 pm, June 4th, 2009

    Pirate squirrels. God damn America.

  36. nestor says at 4:11 pm, June 4th, 2009

    In Texas they look at how many of them darkies they got and build that many cells.

  37. socash says at 5:13 pm, June 4th, 2009

    Wait, so a frequently repeated tidbit of information that sounds marginally plausible turns out to be false? I’m SOO CONFUSED :-/

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