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He has brought shame upon Maths.Welllll Mr. Fancy Baseball and Politics Man knows nothing about the Oscars, apparently! He thought that Taraji Henson would win Best Supporting Actress and Mickey Rourke would win Best Actor. Silver’s calculations excluded several important factors, including: 1) Penelope Cruz is very hot and 2) Sean Penn starred in a feel-good Issues Movie that concerns an issue that many people in Hollywood care about. Nate Silver must be publicly shamed, his statistics license revoked, and his $700,000 book advance donated to a math academy of his choice. [New York Magazine, OSCAR.com]

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59 COMMENTS

  1. He was hedging about the supporting actress Oscar on Olberman. His ‘maths’ and ‘numbers’ told him to pick Taraji Henson, but you could tell he wasn’t willing to bet the farm against Penelope Cruz.
    Rourke would have won if he hadn’t shown up at the awards looking like David Carradine’s coke dealer.

  2. Only if Nate used this equation:

    OSCAR WIN = Acting Ability (%) X Sexy Accent – Tom Cruise + Muy Caliente Body * Number of Nude Photos on Internet

  3. How accurately did Nate Silver predict me not giving a shit about anybody winning anything? I hope Benjamin Button breaks records at the Razzberries though…

  4. Did anyone else rent Bandidas thinking that it might have some valuable social commentary? It could have been alphabetical order that landed it on the same shelf as Barb Wire and Barbarian Queen.

  5. Mickey Rourke looked like he was seriously wasted or otherwise sedated. I’m not so sure he would have been able to negotiate his way to the stage if he had won.

  6. Is it just me, or has Nate gotten more scary and oracular lately? He was on Maddow about a week ago, and he looked lit from beneath, with incense burning on either side and opening his eyes only to speak.

  7. In Nate’s defense, Nate’s simulations accurately took into account that the Academy would give Best Actor to a movie that thoroughly involved latent and patent homo-eroticism, and gave a slight edge to The Wrestler.

  8. Silver was in good company – just about every dang pundit I read was declaring . . um . . Mickey Rooney (?) the winner. I’m glad they were all wrong. Sean Penn was terrific. Justice for my people!

  9. Well, if he is emotionally crushed by this, I personally vote that two uberhot twinks and a pitcher of margaritas be immediately provided to assuage him. I would appreciate video.

  10. So a reasonable grasp of random statistics isn’t sufficient to predict the behavior of a secretive and capricious cabal of industry executives? I guess I may as well toss these elaborate calculations that show the Burmese junta will be cornering the tungsten market and invading Malaysia. Crap.

  11. Well, now that he has gotten something wrong, every prediction he has ever made has been retroactively discredited, and NOOBAMA is no longer our President. Hurray! Let us do to Nate what we do to all failed statisticians (ritual disembowelment).

    [re=249151]wheelie[/re]: Your “people” being gay San Francisco politicians?

  12. I was interested in seeing Milk, as I have liked plenty of stuff that Sean Penn has done, most notably his stage performance a while back in David Rabe’s Hurlyburly (the film performance was a major disappointment).

    But then I saw the clip where he plays a scene on the grand staircase in SF city hall, or wherever, and proceeds to mince around like a figure out of a Sean Delonas cartoon. Now I’m wondering if I shouldn’t just take a pass, since Harvey Milk is an actual important figure in American history, and I might start getting mad at Mr. Van Zandt, for attempting to simultaneously honor/appropriate the Milk legacy. Meh, I’ll probably end up seeing it anyway.

  13. I am very disappointed in our Nate. My husband about had me committed last night as I yelled at the teevee. RECOUNT RECOUNT!!!!! I have no one left to believe in…….

  14. [re=249146]Mahousu[/re]:

    My morning is now a bit brighter, god bless america for giving a poor starving actress an opportunity to shine! Someone say amen!

  15. [re=249182]Mustang[/re]: I can confirm that Nate appeals to The Women (not the PUMAs though, their statistasexual object of desire must be James Carville or someone). Although the mix of Penelope Cruz vs Nate lust here is quite a contrast indeed.

  16. I can honestly say that I went 6 for 6 against Natey-poo on the categories he predicted. The Winslet, Ledger and “Slumdog” wins were slam dunks. That leaves the two he missed (and that I got right). Yes, the “hottitude” factor is relevant and party explains Penelope Cruz winning, add to that the fact that this award is usually where they honor comedic performances. Then there’s the Sean Penn win. Let’s face it, Mickey Rourke has been a burnout throughout most of his career in Hollywood. You have to be totally fucking brilliant to win one of those tschotckes if you have the added burden of being an asshole working against you. Technical people get to vote on these awards and they don’t like waiting around for actors to show up, sober up, remember their lines or what have you. Remember this in future years when you are wondering why Christian Bale has never won an Oscar. He could turn the phone book into Hamlet squared and he will never get an Oscar. Because he reamed out a cameraman. End of story. Back to politics, Nate.

    Plus liberal Hollywood feels guilty about Prop 8 so they had to show a little love to “Milk” and this is where they did it (along with giving that award to that CUTE Lance guy).

  17. What Nate didn’t calculate (and why I won the family’s glam oscar party vote on this category) was the fact Mickey Rourke won the Golden Globe and, therefore, could not win the Oscar:

    The Globes put Mr Creepy on the interview-and-talk-show-circuit and gave him lots of chances to remind the Academy voters why they didn’t like him in the first place. A monkey could have recognized that “Mr. Comeback” would throw it all away again, fast as he could. Plus, while Prop 8 rage scorched Hollywood, he was using slang like f*g.

    I’ll probably rent the movie because I like Darren Aronofsky. (I even rented “The Fountain.”)

    Nate obviously doesn’t read EW.

  18. [re=249248]tiny mexican[/re]: Hey! I’m a girl. Admittedly, I like to channel surf, and I hate to shop, but I’m a girl. I don’t see the Nate Silver thing. I’m more attracted to slobby guys who eat whole bags of chips with dip and act goofy. Thats’ probably not a good thing, though.

  19. [re=249168]InsidiousTuna[/re]: Wall-E only won the lame Best Animation but should have won everything–plus actor and actress. They are just so cuuuuute. I love Wall-E and EV-A. My favorite critic, Lisa Schwarzbaum, made it her number one movie of 2008. Definitely best love story–and best acceptance speech was the producer explaining how Hello Dolly became a featured part of the movie.

  20. Oscars are only the most predictable awards in the entire universe. Why would anyone need to use statistics to predict the results? The only category where there was uncertainty was the best actor category this year. It turns out, the one thing Holywood likes more than a comeback story is a timely teh gays movie.

  21. What Nate failed to take into account is that the Golden Globes and many of the other awards are voted upon by people outside the industry. Mickey Rourke has been a complete A-Hole to everybody for the past twenty years. No mater how good your performance may be if you piss in the porridge of the people voting on the awards you’re likely to walk away with little more then a dead dog and a strangely Gary Oldmanesque new look.

    Also he even said Best Supporting Actress was a pure tossup, he just hedged his bets on Taraji over Penelope.

  22. [re=249284]Fivetree[/re]: along with giving that award to that CUTE Lance guy

    What? I though that was Crispin Glover. I was wondering what he was doing at the Oscars.

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