polling shocker

Rove’s Electoral Projections Were Realistic-ish!

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He just steals his data from Nate Silver.Nobody quite knew what to make of Karl Rove’s very aggressive election night projections, but it seemed safe to conclude that he was trying to mess with Barack Obama in a very sinister and subtle way. People feared that Rove’s projection of 338 electoral votes set the bar too high, so that if Obama won narrowly he would look “illegitimate.” And if Obama lost, he would really look like a loser.

And then it turned out that Karl Rove was not too far off, except in predicting that McCain would win Indiana and North Carolina. So nice job there, Rove, in subtly undermining John McCain by failing to predict he would lose as badly as he did!

Of course, a third and almost unimaginable interpretation of Rove’s behavior exists: that Karl Rove, a man who used polling analysis to great effect in building out the Bush political empire, is actually fairly good at analyzing polls and making projections.

Election 2008: State of the Race [Karl Rove & Co.]

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Sara K. Smith was Wonkette's morning editor from 2008 to 2010, and now contributes a weekly (?!) column to Wonkette, to prove she still loves you all!

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  • AnnieGetYourFun

    I still think his intentions were sinister. He’s probably as shocked as we are that he was right.

  • Serolf Divad

    You missed a spot, Karl…. [picks up paintrbush and fils in North Carolina]… there you go.

    I’m thinking ‘ol Karl is trying to set himself up as a credible analyst just so he’ll have a future of some sort in the post-Bush world. But, sorry Karl, once a Sith Lord always a Sith Lord.

  • obfuscator

    Maybe his analysis of the map was influenced by the fact that he appears to be Robert Gibbs’ long lost brother.

  • mattbolt

    Meanwhile, John Madden’s predictions of upsets in every single state proved to be pretty far off, and his prediction that Brett Favre would somehow win a Senate seat in New York didn’t even make sense

  • shortsshortsshorts

    I hate him even more for always being right. I just don’t get that guy. Karl Rove is obviously not human.

  • Spackle Camshaft Palin

    I refuse to bash Karl Rove in any sort of forum, public or private, because he is ALWAYS WATCHING.

  • MARCdMan

    Those unanswered congressional subpoenas must be distracting him.

  • Hamster

    Well, no one ever said he wasn’t smart. He’s kind of like Hitler in that way, and a few others now that I think of it.

  • FreshCliches

    Meh. Rove is sooooo Tuesday. Can we find out if Saxby Chambliss and Norm Coleman are having teh buttsecks?

  • Charlie Tuna

    Rove is in the tank for Obama.

    I am going to miss adding “in the tank” to every sentence. At least there’s that Saxby thing, Al Franken and Teddy Stevens.

    I can work it into conversations for about another month.


  • middleamerican

    Amazing at polls or not, he’s still a collosal dickbag and sucks at life. There are few people I can stand less (i.e. Rumsfeld, Cheney) than Karl Rove.

  • Rosco P Coltrane

    The only person whose Election Night predictions were more accurate was Mark Penn. He predicted that he would eat an entire spiral cut ham then crysterbate.

  • shellbomber

    Remember that FedEx commercial where they call the boss “Mr. Turkeyneck”? I think of that whenever I see Karl Rove.

  • mattbolt

    The Dems need to work hard on SC and GA, so that the map can look like a big Republican sandwich on blue bread! Plus, the party that controls the seaboards, can CONTROL THE FISH

  • SayItWithWookies

    Does anyone still listen to the fleshy dry heaves of this hyrdrocephalic menace anymore? I don’t discount that he was close — as close as everyone else was — but that, ideally, will mean nothing more than that Karl, after watching his divide-and-terrify strategy melt down in the wake of eight years of drooling incompetence, had no other recouse but to resignedly tell the truth.

  • Servo

    Everyone: Go back to the drunk old man thread and read JESUS IS LOVE’s postings. Man your guns.

  • Tommy Says Soooo

    He probably figures that if he called the election for Hopey the new DOJ won’t go after him. That is how the Repubtards work, after all.

  • jagorev

    [re=169298]mattbolt[/re]: Fox News will spin it a sandwich made from delicious rare roast beef enclosed in moldy bread.

  • problemwithcaring

    [re=169271]shortsshortsshorts[/re]: He’s a human who was diddled and mind-fucked by his lazy, hippie mom’s sadistic second husband. He’s human, but Charles-Manson-human, if that helps.

  • Whiskeybaby

    [re=169298]mattbolt[/re]: hee, you made me LOL

  • magic titty

    [re=169298]mattbolt[/re]: You’re very good at this game.

  • Pat Pending

    [re=169286]Charlie Tuna[/re]: yeah, bummer having to go back to ‘between the sheets’

  • ph7

    Well, Rove’s chart explain it is the “avg. of public polls”, which is essentially the basis of fivethirtyeight’s electoral chart, too. In other words, Rove didn’t analyze; he just added up other’s polls and calculated the average.

  • picardia

    I think he just grabbed Nate Silver’s data from FiveThirtyEight and ran with it.

  • Worlds End

    [re=169272]Spackle Camshaft Palin[/re]: Indeed, he will send you a poison cookie like he did Jon Stewart last night.

    [re=169286]Charlie Tuna[/re]: The tank shall remain forever.

  • magic titty

    Well, truth be told, Rove nearly sharted when Brit Hume interruped him Tuesday to announce Obama had won Ohio.
    So it’s safe to say he wasn’t really *expecting* this outcome.

  • Pat Pending

    [re=169344]magic titty[/re]: you said ‘shart’ *snerk*

    Pasty McSaggyface is just trying to figure out how to stay relevant, but it’s really hard to look new and shiny when you’re applying your own personal poo as makeup…

  • Politicalchef

    There’s nothing sinister here: 338 was my best guess, and I’m a total libtard. It was a *conservative* guess if you were/are a Nate Silver junkie.

  • sanantonerose

    This is great! I made some screen shots of the blue in Texas from 1992-2008. I had forgotten that smarty pants Austin overwhelmingly went for Bush in 2000. Damn hippies. But blue’s coming back, baby, and it’s starting in all four major metro areas!

  • Reefpilot

    We need to stop giving this hog beast credit. He’s no genius. Back in 2000 he nearly cost bush the race by focusing on California. 2006… well… there you go. Guy’s just a piece of shit that hangs out in your toilet tank until it disintegrates enough to clog the fill drain and you gotta call in the Mario bros because Joe the Plumber is in trouble with the IRS. You don’t have any small children or Palin supporters in the house so you have no idea how in the fuck the turd got there.

  • L33tminion

    Karl Rove is done-ish, politically, since pretty much everyone hates his tactics, even if they don’t think he’s outright evil. He can still work from the shadows, of course, but I think he’s now trying to establish a more independent brand so he can sell books, go on the lucrative political lecture circuit, etc.

  • Meth Lab for Cutie

    Rosco P Coltrane: yuck, i saw Penn and Shrum on teevee – believe the show was called The Loser Hour.

  • ky-jellydonuts

    Wait a second, look at the top! He got this map by running a 14-point average of public polling, just like Mister Super Awesome Nate Silver (but without the ultra-smooth scenarios) I know that we set the bar pretty low when it comes to GOP genius, but the fact that someone merely ACKNOWLEDGED REALITY makes them a seer because they didn’t mumble about the Bradley Effect and that young people don’t show up?

  • Miller

    I still think this is some sort of trick to lure us into a false sense of security before he pulls the rug out from under us and the election is invalidated. Damn you Rove! You crafty devil!


  • keepinitrealyo

    Rove is more useful as a mythical figure than as a real person. And he saw it coming… you shoulda seen his appearance on Fox News Sunday a couple of weeks ago, when he was analzing the electoral map. His eyes were hollow and sad, he almost slurred his speech indicating either a late night drinking the night before or an early morning drinking 30 minutes before air time. Either way, drinking.

  • lawrenceofthedesert

    He does tricks with polls so that women will talk to him at parties.

  • nurple

    That thing that Virginia is doing to West Virginia is frankly disgusting.

  • Gorillionaire

    Has “entertainer” Rush Limbaugh updated the electoral map at the top of his website yet? I’d go look myself but I hate to give his site a hit.

  • House of Yes

    this confirms my suspicions about messiah rove. now go color in the blue for north carolina.

  • Dreadful Gate

    Penn, Rove & Associates

  • nurple

    Note to self: When shopping for an evil genius, their attention to personal appearance means a lot.

  • Todomy

    someone needs to take the cockring off FL.

  • blue monkette

    How about Omaha,too, Karl? You asshat.

  • AJO

    OK, I am going out on a limb here, but what if Karl Rove faced the same dilemma that Bill O’Reilly faced? That he he actually didn’t hate Obama and in some strange way respected him? I’m sure I am wrong because Rove is evil and doesn’t have the ability to feel anything…but what if? Bill could never bring himself to say horrible thing about Barack.

  • Rozalia

    Don’t get what’s up with the Louisiana folks. If ever a group of folks was fucked over by the Bushies, it was them. Poor, ignorant fools – homeless, yet they vote for the dick with all the houses.

  • davesnothere

    [re=169264]Serolf Divad[/re]: Yeah he should have a nice future as a political prognositcater – IN JAIL!!

  • nurple

    Rozalia – all the actual screwed-over people are safely isolated in Houston.