JUDGMENT DAY  3:55 pm November 5, 2008

So… Which Pollsters Live, Which Will Be Killed?

by Jim Newell

After 2004, two groups were blamed for making John Kerry’s loss extra sad for the liberals: those secret retards from off-the-grid caves that Karl Rove forced to vote at the last minute, and pollsters. All of the pollsters failed spectacularly on Election Day in 2004, especially with exit polls. Everyone knew that John Kerry was too much of a cocksmoker to possibly win anything, and yet these pollsters committed the CARDINAL SIN of getting Democrats’ hopes up about a national victory of any kind. But this year they tried again. Who will be first against the wall?

Shocker: some of them were right about many things! BUT WILL THIS SAVE THEM?

First, we must devote a section to your absolute favorite pretend boyfriend of late, the most famous person in the history of Internetting, the Messiah of Baseball Stastistics, the pale nerd (read: blogger) who manages to keep getting teevee invites, THE NEW PRESIDENT-ELECT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, Mr. Nate Silver of the FiveThirtyEight math site. He is not a pollster. But he likes polls, a lot.

Nate Silver taught numbers how to fuck. His final prediction was 349 electoral votes for Obama and a 6.1 percentage point win in the popular vote. At the moment, both of those numbers are exactly correct. Nate Silver lives. Oh but wait! The final tally will likely throw North Carolina in Obama’s column, giving him 364 electoral votes in the end. Hmm… Nate Silver dies.

Rasmussen and Pew also predicted a 52% – 46% Obama victory in their final polls. Pew dies because they only chime in every now and then with these polls and then, when they get one right, take all the credit like assholes; Rasmussen lives because they conduct 400 polls a day about everything in politics and, most importantly, don’t send us junk e-mails announcing every single one.

…Which segues perfectly into our next pollster, the infamous John Zogby. For the last year and a half, every time your Wonkette editor has checked his e-mail there has been a fresh “John Zogby to tips” release which is always almost wrong. John Zogby was wrong about everything in 2004 and everything since. He predicted an 11-point Obama margin last night: wrong. And maybe he did pick, um, every swing state correctly last night… but whatever, John Zogby dies.

What the hell, let’s get to the big finale:

Gallup dies, Fox News dies, Daily Kos/Research 2000 dies, Marist dies, ABC/WaPo dies, CBS/NYT dies, Michael Crichton dies, and IBD/TIPP… lives.

Election Poll Review: Who Got It Right? [HuffPo]
Grading The National Polls: Rasmussen In First, Gallup And Zogby Last [TPM Election Central]

 
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{ 54 comments }

eatsshootsleaves November 5, 2008 at 3:59 pm

My boyfriend Nate Silver lives because the only state he didn’t predict was Indiana and who the fuck would get that right. He did however name it as a possible surprise in the Washington Post. So suck it, Wonkette, Nate Silver is awesome, the end.

PerhapsSo November 5, 2008 at 4:01 pm

I have my torch and pitchfork. Meet you in the town square.

El Bombastico November 5, 2008 at 4:02 pm

But Michael Crichton correctly predicted the resurrection of dinosaurs! And super intelligent killer apes! And that “global warming” is a San Francisco fairy tale.

ColdCupofHope November 5, 2008 at 4:03 pm

“Nate Silver taught numbers how to fuck.”

Jesus Hasselhof Christ, I did a spit take!

Pat Pending November 5, 2008 at 4:03 pm

Can Quinnipiac live?

blader November 5, 2008 at 4:04 pm

Nate Silver has the sort of data-driven, empirical smarty pants cutes that almost make one wish he was gay.

grendel November 5, 2008 at 4:05 pm

Nate Silver kept me sane over the last couple months. He must live. He must also learn to smile when on teh teevees.

Giant Robot November 5, 2008 at 4:05 pm

7-11 dies because they made me think that because people in Texas used more blue cups that Barack Obama would win their ten thousand electoral votes. I’m also pissed that their 240 oz softdrinks never fit in my cup holders!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Dr. Spaceman November 5, 2008 at 4:08 pm

Nate Silver has a TV job, for life. But will only get work for two weeks every two years.

Alex Trebeks Girl November 5, 2008 at 4:08 pm

Jeff Goldblum sent a big ass bouquet of flowers I hope. Jurassic Park was his only good movie. The fly so doesn’t count.

blader November 5, 2008 at 4:08 pm

[re=167706]blader[/re]:

I guess what I’m saying is that Nate is definitely toe-tapable….for the unGay….when connecting through MSP

NoWireHangers November 5, 2008 at 4:09 pm

Nate Silver was sensible and reliable for months on end. Bravo, Comrade. There will be a place for you in Red America.

What I never got was why Drudge would promote polls that were just plain WRONG (i.e. WALNUTS! up 3 points on 11/3). Was he trying to get the Wingnut hopes up just to dash them on the rocks of reality? I mean, as Dems we didn’t want to assume Barry would win this thing, but we all knew deep down based on sensible polls that this shit was in the bag about a month ago. Thoughts?

BillyClubb November 5, 2008 at 4:09 pm

I’m with you! The whole nation has been stocking up on weapons for the last few months. The post-election riots didn’t materialize, so yeah, let’s get out there and make the streets red with blood!

sanantonerose November 5, 2008 at 4:10 pm

[re=167697]ColdCupofHope[/re]: Me, too. Almost makes me want to pick numbers up in a bar just so I can learn their bedroom secrets!

OffTheRecord November 5, 2008 at 4:10 pm

Oh poor Chucky Todd, how quickly we cast you aside for our new lover, the adorable baseball nerd without disturbing facial hair.

cal November 5, 2008 at 4:10 pm

Nate Silver should do a Wonkette centerfold.

ZombieRasputin November 5, 2008 at 4:10 pm

Nate Silver will die via sniper bullet from a helicopter outside of Wasilla.

Tommy Says Soooo November 5, 2008 at 4:10 pm

The pollster that should definitely die is that illegal Mexican who re-did my sofa in moose and caribou feathers and told me it was fashionable. Die, Speedy Amphetaminos, die!

MrsNateSilver November 5, 2008 at 4:12 pm

Mmm, nice picture. Like porn for me.

Not really, but whatev.

Texan Bulldoggette November 5, 2008 at 4:13 pm

Shoot, leave the pollsters alone. Let’s vote on which TV pundits/anchor dies. (The fact that everyone on Fox dies is obvious.)

I vote David Gregory off. I thought his stupid show would be over now, but since he won’t get the MTP gig, they’re giving him another Road to the Swearing In or some such show. Arrggg……

BillyClubb November 5, 2008 at 4:13 pm

[re=167732]Tommy Says Soooo[/re]: Speedy Amphetaminos?

Man, that guy gets around, never gets tired, runs instead of walking. What’s his secret?

El Bombastico November 5, 2008 at 4:13 pm

[re=167727]OffTheRecord[/re]: Chucky T is going to shave the goatee, dye his hair and start wearing ironic hipster t-shirts in an embarrassing attempt to appeal to the youngsters once again. It will be sad.

Voyou Charmant November 5, 2008 at 4:17 pm

[re=167711]grendel[/re]: He should also dump the glasses he had on Monday night on one of the MSNBC shows I watched. They just didn’t work.

WhenTheMessiahComes... November 5, 2008 at 4:17 pm

Ohhh Nate Silver…he sends shivers down my nerdy spine!!! Kill all the rest, but lets chain Natie-poo down in the basement for fun and games later!!!

Das Storminator November 5, 2008 at 4:17 pm

[re=167717]Alex Trebeks Girl[/re]: ZOMG. You only forgot the best movie ever. And I’m not talking about The Big Chill

Hamster November 5, 2008 at 4:19 pm

[re=167717]Alex Trebeks Girl[/re]: What about Earth Girls Are Easy, that was Jim Careys best film also. NO TALKING!

tunamelt November 5, 2008 at 4:19 pm

[re=167728]cal[/re]: Yes.

Nate Silver reminds me of why math = porn, for me. Oh, God. Math porn.

qwerty42 November 5, 2008 at 4:20 pm

Wait, what about Mark Blumenthal at Polster.com. I need Mark and Nate.

qwerty42 November 5, 2008 at 4:25 pm

[re=167763]tunamelt[/re]: consider the axiom of chance.

rev_matt_y November 5, 2008 at 4:26 pm

[re=167717]Alex Trebeks Girl[/re]: Jurassic Park Goldblum’s only good movie? Have you not seen the brilliant Transylvania 6-5000?

Cookie Guggelman November 5, 2008 at 4:26 pm

Mason/Dixon must be first tortured and then slowly killed.

qwerty42 November 5, 2008 at 4:28 pm

[re=167765]qwerty42[/re]: “choice” dammit

cait November 5, 2008 at 4:29 pm

Nate Silver lives because, while his computer-run simulations predicted Indiana would go to McCain, he personally anticipated an Obama win because of the “ground game”. So Nate Silver lives and is smarter than the computer.

The West Wing lives for correctly predicting that the minority candidate would win against the lame old guy back in its final season. (But Aaron Sorkin had left by then, so no one was watching.)

magic titty November 5, 2008 at 4:32 pm

pollsmoker.

pepe November 5, 2008 at 4:38 pm

That Nate Silver taught numbers to fuck line was probably the funniest thing I’ve read in 6 months.

magic titty November 5, 2008 at 4:38 pm

[re=167721]NoWireHangers[/re]: Because Drudge is a douchenozzle with the right wing’s funnel of fuckery plugging up his asshole?

paulywog November 5, 2008 at 4:41 pm

If W is going to give Uncle Ted a pardon for taking all that oil money then Nate Silver should definitely be pardoned. What’s so wrong with two numbers fucking as long as they are of age. Hey, those numbers weren’t under 18, were they? Now that would be bad.

Platypus November 5, 2008 at 4:48 pm

[re=167717]Alex Trebeks Girl[/re]: Jeff Goldblum totally kicked ass in Buckaroo Banzai, one of the greatest movies of all time!

Weeping Jesus November 5, 2008 at 5:01 pm

Here’s a simple quiz for you:
Guess which is the one state Barry never visited?
Guess which state has a long-time senator recently convicted of seven felony counts?
Guess which state just re-elected that senator?

Answer: Alaska

Guess which polls showed Stevens trailing the challenger right up to the end? Uh, every one of them.

Same questions, only substitute “under investigation” for “convicted” and “Congressman” for “Senator”, except add this one: Guess which polls had the scumbag behind significantly the week before the election (and among which one even rated the election the “safest” for the Democrats to steal a seat in Congress)? All of them.

Obama’s time was precious, I understand. But Stevens won by less than 1% of the vote. A quick visit to that state and Barry might have grabbed another Senate seat for the Dems.

If Stevens loses on appeal or on re-trial and is expelled by the Senate (guaranteed), guess who’s going to run for his seat in the special election they’d have to hold? If you’re guessing The Mavericky Bible Spice, you’re smarter than the pollsters. But if you’re guessing there’s any way she’d lose, you’re not so smart after all.

JadedDIssonance November 5, 2008 at 5:02 pm

[re=167741]Texan Bulldoggette[/re]: I’m with you.

From CNN: James Carville needs to go. He’s not even a good swearer like John Malkovitch. Can we save Candy Crowley? She’s my absolute fave.

From MSNBC: This one is special. I’ve watched KO turn into a lefty side to CM’s cheeseburger. I’m tired. Maddow can stay. Buchanan is funny.

From ABC: Nobody cares. (but keep Chuckie Gibson, I like his dry NPR-like-chuckle)

From NBC: (Is planning a new reality show from Seacrest. Let them burn like Fox)

CNN Headline News needs to take that gorgeous 3-6am anchor girl and put her front and center. Yow!

blader November 5, 2008 at 5:12 pm

[re=167873]JadedDIssonance[/re]:

I’d like to see Wolf traded from CNN to FOX for 3 blondes and a future consideration

WadISay November 5, 2008 at 5:13 pm

[re=167713]Giant Robot[/re]: Thank Dog we don’t have to kill the Washington Redskins this year.

WIDTAP November 5, 2008 at 5:15 pm

[re=167759]Hamster[/re]: Jeff Goldblum’s best film in the sense of “OMG! Gena Davis in a Bikini!”

WIDTAP November 5, 2008 at 5:18 pm

[re=167871]Weeping Jesus[/re]: Dude – don’t you know anything about Alaska elections? Stevens could have lost by 50 and he still would have had it in the bag.

HuskyMescan November 5, 2008 at 5:29 pm

John Zogby is Matt Drudge’s butt plumber.

problemwithcaring November 5, 2008 at 5:29 pm

[re=167721]NoWireHangers[/re]: He was just feeding the cable news beast, as befits the job of a stable boy.

problemwithcaring November 5, 2008 at 5:37 pm

[re=167873]JadedDIssonance[/re]: No one even noticed poor Katie Couric was covering the ‘leckshun over on the Cooter Broadcasting Network! Isn’t there another random vag Katie can chat with??

sansabelt November 5, 2008 at 5:45 pm

Um, not to get all serious on you, but the exit polls were correct in 2004.

http://www.rollingstone.com/news/story/10432334/was_the_2004_election_stolen

It’s a long article, but the first bit gets all detail-y about the exit polls. Pretty interesting, and written by Robert Kennedy Jr., our future head of the EPA, maybe.

emberglance November 5, 2008 at 5:47 pm

[re=167721]NoWireHangers[/re]: 1. The wingnuts feel more comfortable in a reassuring bubble, where their world view isn’t contaminated by reality. The Zogby figures provided calming reading for life in the bubble.

2. To create a rush of momentum, which would sweep the nation up and carry a momentous victory for McC.

er… not sure why else. I noticed more and more talk on the far right about how important it was for them to ignore the “MSM”, with its liberal bias and its biased liberalism. Unfortunately, this quickly becomes the same as sticking your fingers in your ears and singing “la la la”… But when you’re that far out of step with everyone else, it must be hard to keep a straight face.

helenaHandbasket500 November 5, 2008 at 7:08 pm

[re=167706]blader[/re]: what makes you think he’s not?

travellabyrinth November 5, 2008 at 8:08 pm

“Michael Crichton dies” lol…

Nahuatl-Axolotl November 5, 2008 at 11:49 pm

All this reminds me of SchrÅ‘dinger’s cat…

TGY November 6, 2008 at 11:00 am

[re=168471]Nahuatl-Axolotl[/re]: But we live in *this* universe, man.

It’s good of you to keep track of this shit, ’cause somebody should.

freerangemink November 6, 2008 at 2:36 pm

[re=167777]rev_matt_y[/re]: Or Mr.Goldblum’s breakthrough performance as “Slick” in Silverado!

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