Wonkette
An actual 10,574,901 national and state polls have been conducted today, did you know that? No you didn’t, because you people cannot count that high. So here’s what you “need to know,” according to our fancy data robots at Wonkette.
Every state John Kerry won in 2004 is safe for Obama, by double digits. The only… hmm what’s a good “Nate Silver Word” here… “outlier” is Pennsylvania, which has tightened to about a 7-8 percentage point lead for Obama ever since John McCain decided to run his entire campaign there. Unfortunately for Walnuts, however, is the fact that he is still losing in this state by 7-8 points.
If you assume Pennsylvania holds for Obama along with the other Kerry states, that gives him 252 electoral votes with which to start. Add Iowa (7 electoral votes, +13 polling advantage) and New Mexico (5 electoral votes, +9 advantage) and he has a fairly safe 264 electoral votes. Colorado (9 electoral votes, +7 advantage) or Virginia (13 electoral votes, +6 advantage) ERGO would make Obama the new preznint, the end. Or he could win Nevada (5 electoral votes, +7 advantage) instead of CO or VA leading to a 269-269 tie in the electoral college, and then the awful liberals in the House of Representatives would simply make Obama president, ha ha.
Otherwise, Obama appears to have a +2-5 advantage in Ohio and a +2-3 advantage in Florida. Missouri and North Carolina are insanely tied. McCain has a slight advantage in Indiana and Georgia. None of this matters except to you meanies who want to run up the score on poor Walnuts.
John McCain can only win (*cross our fingers!*) if all of the millions of polls are terribly wrong, as they were in New Hampshire earlier this year. That was so weird, remember? Memories. Anyway, still keep a baseball bat or some weapon on hand for the race riots, just in case.
[Pollster]
Walnuts has us right where he wants us!
Heck, let’s riot either way!
You outlier…..you brought her, wokka, wokka!
I’m just happy that there is a new poll out tonight showing that ass Virgil Goode only 3 pts. ahead of his Democratic challenger, Tom Perriello. Margin of error 4 pts. Woo hoo! Take that you Muslin hater!
The easiest math and easiest way to not die of acute alcohol poisoning is to see whether Virginia goes for Obama early on (that plus Iowa, which is a cinch, puts him over 270). If so, go to bed and wake up Wednesday morning in the New Golden Age.
The Klan is going to spook the Coloreds tonight into not voting tomorrow.
I was told there would not be a math component to this class.
Wow. The Four Corners are gay. Courreges Pucci Ungaro gay.
Or he could win Nevada (5 electoral votes, +7 advantage) instead of CO or VA leading to a 269-269 tie in the electoral college, and then the awful liberals in the House of Representatives would simply make Obama president, ha ha.
Honestly, want an Obama landslide that includes humiliating McCain Arizona and Palin in Alaska, but this scenario would make for some nice payback for 2000.
“Reality has a well-known liberal bias” just as long as Karl Rove doesn’t go to his Bat-Cave to create a new reality.
That Pollster map hasn’t budged since Thursday. So I’m boycotting Pollster. And by “boycotting,” I mean I’m not checking it every fifteen minutes. So there.
I want a landslide in the tank.
stupid terrorist math…
:-(((((
-SP
Oh wow, maybe I will just get high and forget to vote!
I saw the best-ever Fox News election map, where practically every single state that Obama was winning by less than 20% was classified as TOO CLOSE TO CALL, leading to a projection of McCain 180, Obama 160, TOO CLOSE TO CALL shit-ton. Yeah, that’s one way to make it look close!
Walnut’s strategy insight - Scranton Days Inn cheaper than anything in Scottsdale or Vegas.
America’s Penis has jaundice.
Statistics and actuarial science are in the tank/Marxist.
Polls close early in VA, NC, GA… hoping we can call any of those states for Obama… so I can go to bed! After toppling a few SUVs… heh
Cogito Ergo Bibo: Aww…Goode employed one of the two homosexuals in Danville and let the other use his fax, maybe. Considering it’s the 5th District, and he wasn’t having them hung in the parking lot of the Super WalMart, maybe he’s not such a bad guy?
Ah, fuck it. I declare a Tinklenberg’er on his ass and I’m giving $20 to Perriello…
Hopey’s on the verge of fucking away Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Virginia, by not addressing McCain’s pandering in these states on the “Obama wants to kill all coal miners and also Loretta Lynn” talking point.
Seriously, where the fuck is he today? Florida? Fuck Florida- drag your ass back to the Pro-America parts and kick Walnuts in the shins.
still keep a baseball bat
What, Ken sold his shares of Glock?
Hah! I am fully conversant in the maths (yea and then some) and Barry is our next prezdent. All hail, Obama bin Biden!
Awww…. How cute– the red sates form a shape of McCain lying on his back with legs and arms stuck up in the air a la a dead cockroach. Coincidence?
SC is his head, ID is his foot, WV is his hand. Texas is
anhis assSerolf Divad: I’m going to watch the coverage on FoxNews tomorrow night. The stricken looks on their pale white faces will be priceless. I guess that makes me a race traitor and a terrorist.
Will this be on the final?
demand that your local bar do “cheap shots” on tuesday. it’s the american way!
You people have it all wrong. In every one of those polls, they didn’t ask people who they were voting for. They asked “which one of these people is a secret half-breed muslin who wants to destroy America.”
I just can’t believe McCain is a muslin… he hides it so well.
messickc: Utah would be yet another cancerous tumor hanging off his leg.
Silly Jim! Don’t you understand that the race riot happens if Hopey WINS!
Okay, at the risk of sounding stupid - who is this “Polls” fellow, and why does he hate Amerika?
I’m going to have to actually start working again on Wednesday.
GO BLUE MO!!!!!!!!!!
If he fucking loses this thing, I may just start randomly running over every white person in Rural Missouri I come across.
messickc: In another bit of irony, Georgia appears to be attempting to choke him to death.
Only one more day until the advent of The Failed Obama Presidency.
I give the media two months until they crawl out of the tank and start taking pot-shots.
dano:
I want to, but will have to wait ’till VA or PA goes for Obama. When it looked like Gore had Florida in 2000 I switched to Fox to soak in their sour disappointed faces and bitter comments, and then got bitten in the ass when Florida swung back the other way.
messickc: LOL!!!
Take a look at that map, wouldya. That’s going to make for some interesting front lines when the country splits apart in the next civil war. Kansas and Nebraska will fall early to the mechanized forces of the Blue Muslin Antichristo Army, followed by Kentucky. The fighting in Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming will be bloody and bitter, a scorched earth kind of thing. Alaska will begin a perilous existence beset by the powers of Russia, Canada, China and Japan. The South will sink again. Etc etc etc USA! USA! USA!
messickc (ROLL TIDE!): And Alaska looks like a poop!
mattbolt: Well here’s the thing: find a Fox News true believer and say, ya know, it looks like McCain may be making a comback. Look, let’s have a little wager… You could make a lot of money this way, though it means you would have to speak to someone who watches Fox News. You’ve got about 20 hours.
Remember that the Nazarene Post Gazette had Jesus 8 points ahead of Barabas just prior to the mob election of 32 A.D. and look how that turned out.
messickc (ROLL TIDE!): Florida sorta looksl like a pick-axe in his back…
norbizness: I still plan on drinking furiously, just with a happy face.
sarahconnor: It could be a long time before VA’s count comes in — they’re providing paper ballots in case they run out of other kinds or if the lines for the voting machines are too long. I just hope it’s not a long night of electoral fuckup nation.
magic titty: And who doesn’t want to kill Loretta Lynn?
So noone here dressed up as WALNUTS or Palin for Halloween and sent it in?
Tommy Says Soooo: Always thought of Florida as more like the balls of America, getting read to teabag Latin America…
Just to keep you informed from socialist europe: The Netherlands, Germany, Belgium, French and Italy are having broadcasts about the elections constantly and uhh we’re in the tank. Could you fit in ehhmm well.. Europe?
SelfDeprecatingFed: A big one, too… 1/5 the size of the rest of the US.
messickc: It looks like he’s giving a thumbs-up, hopefully as he descends to his doom, a la T2.
sarahconnor:
Tuesday
November 4
6:30 AM-7:30 PM
GENERAL ELECTION
“Early?” I’m thinking that’s about standard closing time 7:30pm. And in fact if “folks” are in line at 7:30 I think they’ll stay open until they’ve voted. That’s here in the People’s Republic of Mecklenburgistan (a/k/a Charlotte NC).
Fuck it, in the last 24 hours Hopey cracked the $90 dollar mark on Betfair, The Iowa Electronic Market and Intrade, none of which matters to me because I didn’t bet $10K when Barry was trading at $5. (headbang)
pondscum: I know. Sucks doesn’t it?
I take solace in the fact that no matter what happens, on Thursday afternoon I’ll be on a plane headed due east to visit family in Holland, Germany and the original Iraq, Yugoslavia.
If dude wins I’ll finally be able to admit to being from The America again.
Just for the record, MISTAHCOUGHDROP voted in the BATTLE GROUND STATE OF FLORIDA. By absentee ballot. A month ago.
And yes, I voted for Hopey.
Obamas grandma died
OK, back to work… I had waaaay too much fun wit that.
cal: “A riot is an ugly sink, unt, I think that it is just about time dat ve had vone!”
Worlds End: How cruel is thsis life? She didn’t get to see tomorrow’s result….
Worlds End: no
Remember George W Bush? This just in:
GWB Library to Open in 2009
The George W. Bush Presidential Library is now in the planning stages. The Library will include:
The Hurricane Katrina Room, which is still under construction.
The Alberto Gonzales Room, where you won’t be able to remember anything.
The Texas Air National Guard Room, where you don’t even have to show up.
The Walter Reed Hospital Room, where they don’t let you in.
The Guantanamo Bay Room, where they don’t let you out.
The Weapons of Mass Destruction Room, which no one has been able to find.
The National Debt room which is huge and has no ceiling.
The ‘Tax Cut’ Room with entry only to the wealthy.
The ‘Economy Room’ which is in the toilet.
The Iraq War Room. After you complete your first tour, they make you go back for a second, third, fourth, and sometimes a fifth time.
The Dick Cheney Room, in the famous undisclosed location, complete with shotgun gallery.
The Environmental Conservation Room, still empty.
The Supreme Court’s Gift Shop, where you can buy an election.
The Airport Men’s Room, where you can meet some of your favorite Republican Senators.
The ‘Decider Room’ complete with dart board, Magic 8-ball, Ouija board, dice, coins, and straws.
The museum will also have an electron microscope to help you locate the resident’s accomplishments.
messickc: Any chance you could swing by and verify this Virgin Mary I’m seeing in my grilled cheese sandwich? I promise 20% from the Ebay auction proceeds.
Robbertjan: Thankfully, the Obamatank is actually a huge ForceFlex garbage bag.
Why wait til tomorrow to riot? I am actually commenting and rioting simultaneously.
***Comment sent via fancy Internet phone.
Here’s what I’m wondering– say you’re from Ohio. Your economy has been in the toilet for at least ten years or so and we all hear stories about how you can’t get any decent jobs, can’t get health care, blah blah blahbity blah. So when you have a chance to get rid of the people who created all this mess and vote for somebody with a reasonably decent chance of if not fixing it, giving it a good shot, you still vote for the cranky old guy and his redneck partner in crime from the party who created all this mess.
Hmmm….why would that be?
Nathalie08:
FreshCliches: No Probz, but my standard cut is 40 percent. Perhaps we can work out a deal.
messickc (ROLL TIDE!): messickc (ROLL TIDE!): But that’s full of republicans already.
I’m still going to be biting my nails, vomiting, and running around in circles like a spaz until the returns come in tomorrow night, or until i have a heart attack and die, whichever comes first, the end.
You had me at “high”, Jim.
Worlds End: Ack! Checked it on CNN, and you’re right…she’d been fighting cancer…oh dear, what a bittersweet end, I wish she could’ve held on another 48 hours so she could see him win.
I’m glad he took the time to go see her and say goodbye.
SayItWithWookies: I am all over Nate Silver’s site at http://www.fivethirtyeight.com. This guy knows his math, which is more than I can claim for myself. I like that he spells out 538–so much nicer for us English majors. AND he’s in the tank for Obama!
messickc (ROLL TIDE!): Seems like a good euphamism for his whole campaign.
Worlds End: Completely unfair that she doesn’t get to see tomorrow. Whatever else she did in her life, raising BO was a great gift to our nation and world.
My blood pressure is going through the roof, and I’m only 26!
I need Nov 4 do be over with Obama signed, sealed and delivered as the next Prez.
Come on Ohio, Penn and Virginia, do the right thing!
————————–
Obama 2008
“Mad McCain” videos: http://tv1.com/playlists/show/11
The Inuit Race Riots?
Worlds End: Source, please.
shit, dutch tv just tells granny actually died. I feel sorry for her and him.
Giant Robot: She’ll see. She’ll see.
CivicHoliday: Why only if he loses? Those peckerwoods got it coming either way.
Godot: SelfDeprecatingFed: HAHA!
Outlier? I barely know her!
BTW, the kids at CNBC are seriously losing their wheels. They are scared, well… shitless!!! Maria Bartamafukko just went berserk….talking about the Obama Economic Plan….The black man gwan take it all away from dem…
Worlds End: CivicHoliday: Okay, I see it. Damn. Damn damn damn.
Unscientific Poll of One
“If my news-hating, soap-opera watching, cousin actually manages to get her shit together and get her black ass across the street to her polling place and vote, whilst having no job and nothing to do other than NOT feeling like it- I can say with unabashed certainty: Barry’s got this shit in a landslide!”
NO!!!!! That is NOT what I read on Drudge. Sinners!
MISTAHCOUGHDROP: Damn dawg if you had only single spaced you mighta been in the running for Win of 2008!!!
MISTAHCOUGHDROP: The museum will be built next to the Al Gore research library where the only sources you can find are fiction.
SelfDeprecatingFed: HENGH!
Carrie_Okie: errrr, sorry that’s early compared to where I live, in fuggedaboutitstan… polls are open to 9 pm. anyway, whatever, cheers!
CNBC needs to shuttit. Corporate America needs a middle class with disposable income. That was the basis of the 20th century US economic miracle. And that will happen again. They should stop betting against the American way. That doesn’t ever work in the long run.
I have a cheap katana sword within arms reach as i type. It’s more for tweakers than anybody else though. I wouldn’t want to fight Uma Thurman with it, but it’ll put out an eye, you betcha.
I was thinking of looking at the election coverage on BBC channel; they won’t hesitate to call it before all the polls close; they are aliens and can move at the speed of light. Maybe they’ll call it later tonight… Kidding aside, fingers crossed and hope the kids show up as promised.
I will be celebrating the election of our SUPREME MUSLIN LEADER BARRY O’BOMBER tomorrow night with Wonkette commenter “Rush,” aka “McCAIN’S SECRET GAY LUVR.” A good time will be had by all.
Hooray for Anything:
That was my philosophy during the 2004 General Election, when I actually lived in Ohio. I would talk to people who had been unemployed for years, who had seen their factories close up, and I would ask why in God’s name they were voting for Shrubya.
All I could figure out was that they think Republicans pass out handguns and tax cuts at Thanksgiving time.
friends in colorado have told me that some people are being told to vote on wednesday…no one would believe that, would they?
Enigmatic: perversity. It’s the inertia in the equation. I think at the moment it’s light enough that Obama’s momentum will be more important, and the next 16 years, perversity inertia will work for Dems.
I DEMAND evidence of these “fancy data robots.”
Miss-hippa and Louisiana votin’ Repubtard after the Katrina fiasco? How many betrayals will it take to penetrate their thick skulls!?
Breaking…across the international date line, Guam has gone 2 to 1 for Obarry. 2 votes for Hopey and 1 vote for heat rash.
The powers that be are going to freak tomorrow at all the coloreds standing in line to vote, not one of them yelling, “Bring me some motherfuckin’ iced tea, bitch!”
I may be proved wrong, but I think turnout in states with a darker flavor is going to make the pollsters look silly. Obama’s gonna win Georgia, and he might win Mississippi. Virginia and North Carolina, fuhgeddaboudit. Blowouts.
mcfrady: No one who wouldn’t be too high to vote on Tuesday, anyway.
nurple: Keynesian economics. Explaining to any Repubtard is answered with head tilting not unlike a dog that hears a squeak toy.
Servo: ‘Cause Katrina was God’s wrath against the libruls and the nigras. Duh.
SayItWithWookies: Only every fifteen? Christ, how do you Keep Up?
EnigmaticFlounder: But this time the economy is that much in the crapper. And the Republican candidate has run just an awful campaign and there’s such a noticeable difference between not just the policies of the two candidates but the type of men they are. Throw in the 7-9 point national spread and you gotta wonder what their problem is. If they vote McCain this year, they might as well change their motto from “the Buckeye State” to the “We’re the Ignorant Racist Cracker” state. And then Obama should just yank their health care and tax benefits just cause….
problemwithcaring:
Funny. I always thought of it as God tellin’ the Jefferson Davis wannabes to get off his property. If you build a plantation where weather can knock it down, weather WILL knock it down.
These poles ain’t shit I have ACORN, my ace in the hole.
All I need is to dump that ugly bitch Michelle and some how get Nancy Pelosi jailed or something.
OMG!! PLEASE TELL ME THAT WALNUTS AND BIBLE SPICE AREN’T GOING TO WIN!!!! I’M GOING OUT OF MY FRACKING MIND!!! WHAT WILL WE DO IF THEY WIN?! I’VE BEEN HOLDING MY BREATH FOR FOREVER!!!!
Ok. Freak out over. But seriously; please tell me we’re not going to turn into the United States of Idiocracy. Please?!
Please tell me that we have the sense a mule has to come in out of the rain, or are we going to be the turkeys that drown?
The perfect ending, regardless of the Senatorial, Gubernatorial, Presidental (Hint: Obama wins) or even (my fave) Proposition R in San Francisco is a nail biter/recount in Arizona! McCain has accepted his fate as doom and is already mixing the Kool Aid for the staff: The one act of God that will keep that man awake past 10 p.m. is the possibility of losing Arizona.
Win or lose Arizona, I don’t care. Just as long as it’s close and drawn out to the wee hours. McCain is braced for the blowout, this is the only thing that might remotely faze him.
Texas2Step: I for one, will immigrate if Crazyfarts and Moosetits win. And I’m taking my education and money with me. Unless anyone wants to succeed?!?
MISTAHCOUGHDROP:
Let me buy you a virtual drink.
Just meet me in the Dubya presidential library.
I’ll be near the screen door that just might hit him on the ass as he is leaving.
Jesus! Secede.
Hahaha Arizona is a delightful salmon color! Almost makes you feel sorry for the poor guy.
Okay my math’s not the greatest but I can do simple addition and if McCain needs 270 to win he has to win the red states, all the toss ups AND some of the lean Blue states. How the Eff can this be close???? It looks like a landslide to me -Needless to say I am anxiety ridden and will continue to freak out until McSame concedes….
God, Karma or fate needs to step in tomorrow and make sure that Karl Rove falls down a flight of stairs or 10 before he leaves the house to fix the polls tmrw. and if the exit polls look fishy I am gonna lose my shit!
Speaking of freepers, over at fivethirtyeight.com thus spake: ”
PeteKent said…
I do like that “shy Tory” effect. Truly we McCain-Palin supporters are the unfashionable bunch.
But we will not be shouted down by the Stalinists and their media allies.
A shudder runs though me as I like of the delight I will feel when Nevada falls for McCain and he and Palin capture the Presidency.
PA has been lost to you all. Obama lost it in San Francisco. Small town folk, the nation over, have been waiting for their revenge.
Don’t talk behind our backs!”
Ghastly. Stalinists?!? Good grief!
MSNBC keeps running this stupid add by GOPtrust.com about the Reverend Wright thing. It’s annoying. Why can’t they have a tech glitch, or something, and only air that beautiful ad with “American Tune” playing in the background.
Please let us do the right thing.
ALSO, THIS JUST IN: Troopergate’s in the tank for Bible Spice. I wonder how much her exoneration cost?
I am a little worried about a couple of things: 1) Hopey should have spent today in the midwest, not in Florida or Virginia. It’s just showing off and won’t mean anything; 2) The Hope-ites are too worried about a mandate while they need to be worried about winning. PA and OH are NOT by any means in the bag. There’s a sense that all these newly registered young voters will outvote the white bitters with their guns and God. That’s a big leap. The young voters do tend to have jobs they show up for and spending two hours in line to vote is probably not in the cards. At least the weather looks to be nice.
That said, tomorrow could be a big day. If you’re watching Tweetey at 8 EST and he’s yammering about PA, VA, FL and NC going to Obama, it’s over. Even McCain knows that.
Texas2Step: Yeah and what up with the release tonight? Couldn’t it wait until Wednesday afternoon?
The only way the beautiful black folks in these massive poll lines are voting for Wally is if they are secret robots manufactured in a retrofitted beer factory run by Mrs. Walnuts. I wouldn’t put it past her; she wants to be first lady so badly it makes me think it must be important in some unknown way.
“Or he could win Nevada (5 electoral votes, +7 advantage) instead of CO or VA leading to a 269-269 tie in the electoral college, and then the awful liberals in the House of Representatives would simply make Obama president”
Are you sure about this? Doesn’t each state get one vote to decide who’s timmy for the next 4 years, and all those raccoon hanging states will outnumber the heavily populated but fewer gay married states?
http://www.velvetrevolution.us/prosecute_rove/
Don’t say you weren’t learnt before being burnt by the prurient current.
would there be riots?
I wrote about this a little while back:
http://jumpinginpools.blogspot.com/2008/10/if-obama-loses-cities-will-burn.html
Late breaking news from FOX: some unknown person has pissed in Palen’s Gene Pool.
orfannkyl: I was not aware that four days ago was “a while back”. But thank you for linking your insipid blog anyway, as I imagine you had to take some time out of gloating over the death of Obama’s grandmother at Freeperland to drop your little nugget here.
Two days ago, the next county over arbitrarily switched the polling place for most residents of the local university. Our own county is telling folks they can’t wear buttons or slogans into polling places (but openly carried firearms are just dandy!) Better yet, our county is also disregarding absentee ballots received after Friday, even though the department of state says that late absentees’ choices for president must be counted.
Which state is that?
Pennsylvania.
Have a nice tomorrow, folks.
Serolf Divad: When was the media in the tank? Am I miss remembering the collective orgasm they had over the Wright video, or the race baiting and the whole meme about why can’t he close the deal, why wouldn’t he attract Hispanics. Oh he is an elitist, he can’t bowl, why won’t he eat hamburgers and pancakes, and so forth.
Yes there are some in the media who are in the tank but most would have feasted on his meat if his campaign gave them the slightest chance,
MISTAHCOUGHDROP: Yep, that just about sums it up.
Now, if only we could find someone game to put in their speech at the Dedication…