Ha ha ha ha haWe checked in on Arizona last week and found “favorite (carpetbagger) son” John McCain was not exactly killing in his alleged home state. In fact, his double-digit lead was down to about a half-dozen points, and we gleefully imagined a scenario in which Walnuts lost Arizona. It would be fantastically humiliating for McCain and Republicans everywhere. And now, it is very close to being reality!

As we never tire of mentioning, McCain is not a popular figure in Arizona — especially with real conservatives, who have always seen him as an East Coast silver-spoon phony who came out West chasing the wealthy tail of beer heiress Cindy Hensley and hunting for an easy Congressional seat. Barry Goldwater hated John McCain, who eventually hustled his way into the Libertarian Hero’s Senate seat, and the “Joe Sixpack” types hate McCain for being a liberal elitist who wants all the Mexicans to come to Arizona, illegally, so that Cindy can have more servants in their seven mansions.

Anyway, the new polls are here! And Arizona is tied.

The Arizona Republic reports today:

Sen. John McCain’s once-comfortable lead in Arizona has all but evaporated, according to a new poll that has the underdog Republican presidential candidate struggling in his own backyard.

With less than a week until Election Day, McCain is leading his Democratic rival, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, by 2 points, 46 to 44, down from a 7-point lead a month ago and a double-digit lead this summer, according to a poll from Arizona State University.

Factor in the 3-percentage point margin of error, and a race that was once a nearly sure thing for McCain is now a toss-up, pollsters say.

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha hah.

Obama hasn’t been advertising in Arizona, because McCain was supposed to win easily, but there is a little bit of advertising on the teevee tonight, in Arizona and everywhere else — the half-hour Obama show that will appear on three teevee networks and four cable channels, along with Obama’s various appearances on news programs and the Daily Show this evening.

And even without a visit from the candidate, Obama supporters are particularly enthusiastic in McCain’s saguaro-filled backyard. Some bloggers from the Huffington Post visited McCain and Obama headquarters in Phoenix and Tuscon last week to get the volunteer vibe. Here’s what they found:

  • “The McCain campaign office is devoid of people, but its walls are lined with stacks of unsold yard signs. Meanwhile, the Obama office is filled with volunteers, but signs fly out of the door almost as fast as they arrive.”
  • “On the first visit to the McCain campaign’s Arizona headquarters, the office was nearly empty. Three people worked quietly at desks. On the next visit, the office again had only a few people but was filled with a surplus of unused yard signs.”
  • “The Tucson Democratic office, on the other hand, is filled with bustling volunteers chatting on the phone with voters, inputting data, making coffee and snacks in the kitchen area, and organizing campaign literature in the back of the office. The phone rings non-stop. Because the office is located on a busy corner, there is also a constant stream of walk-in visitors purchasing campaign materials or volunteering for the campaign.”
  • “One wall flutters with volunteer sign-up sheets; a quick glance reveals that most office shifts are full to capacity, along with lengthy lists of volunteers ready to canvas local neighborhoods. The office is virtually wallpapered with Obama posters, information on other downticket candidates, sign-up sheets, upbeat slogans, campaign literature, political cartoons and newspaper articles. It’s colorful and high energy.”
  • “Thirteen miles away, the Tucson Republican office is tucked in a strip mall off of a residential street near the Sun City retirement community. The inside reflects its languid surroundings. The office is pristine: Everything is orderly, neat, tidy and controlled. The office is rarely open. Walls are virtually devoid of decoration, except for the usual district map, posters of John McCain and the you-couldn’t-possibly-miss-them color photos of George W. Bush and Dick Cheney.”

And the Politico’s Mike Allen adds this warning of a press conference this afternoon sure to further shame Old Man Walnuts:

EXCLUSIVE: Arizona Democratic Party Chairman Don Bivens plans to hold a press conference call at 2:30 p.m. Eastern today to argue that polling suggests “Sen. McCain is in danger of losing his home state.”

Of course McCain knows this — they’ve got internal polling! No wonder he won’t even face his own supporters at his “victory party” in Phoenix on Election Night.

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  1. Sheesh, you slap a few drunk Indians when you’re shooting craps in your own home state, and they won’t even turn out and threaten the ‘groes for you.

  2. I guess it’s a sign of my lifelong depression of being a Dem that I read about a +2 McCain lead in Arizona and go “Wahooo!” and then read about a +5 Obama lead in Ohio and go “Fuuuuuuuuuuck.”

  3. [re=154090]NoWireHangers[/re]: But Gore didn’t carry Tennessee. Still, I’m more than happy to ridicule McCain whenever the opportunity presents.

  4. if i were walnutz, at this point i would curl up beside the creek with a bottle of cindys vicodin and a bottle of Bushmills and try to remember the “good times”(done with air quotes or as jon stewart calls them “dick fingers”) like the time i banged that brazillizn stripper whooore

  5. Thirteen miles away, the Tucson Republican office is tucked in a strip mall off of a residential street near the Sun City retirement community. –Oh cool, near the McCain home.

  6. [re=154090]NoWireHangers[/re]: But you surely remember Nobelist Gore couldn’t carry Tennessee in 2000–probably because he hadn’t been home in 20 years.

  7. I am rarely proud of my home state, but one thing most people here hate are bossy, officious old people. We have cities devoted to them here, and their annoyance factor is high. They are going to shake off McCain like he was a cold next week.

    Suck on it, Grampy.

  8. Just returned from a week in Tucson. McCain will win the state. Arizona has a surplus of old people who listen to talk radio all day and believe Hopey is a Mohammaden and he’s going to tax their big, slow moving cars. They also vote like their life depends on it. Education bond measures always fail because the blue/gray haired Mafia doesn’t believe in any kind of taxes- even for schools.

    Mel Carahan could beat Obama in AZ

  9. [re=154097]Min[/re]: Oops, you got there first. [re=154090]NoWireHangers[/re]: Didja know that when Nixon was veep under Eisen-freaking-hower he dandled little baby Al Gore on his knee while presiding in the Senate?

    Maybe that event alone was enough to jinx Al for life.

  10. I will not get my hopes up!

    I’m tired of being Charlie Brown to Diebold’s Lucy.

    Once Barry is sworn in on the Koran and has started enforcing Sharia, I MIGHT believe that he won, but no sooner.

  11. [re=154111]BigDupa[/re]: As a native and current Tucsonan, I unfortunately have to agree with you.

    This poll really blows my excuse for not volunteering: “Hopey ain’t even going to be close.”

  12. [re=154123]rambone[/re]: That whole Koran thing…I am hoping they have a school for studies. I just am not good with “at-home” studying.

  13. My only concern about the election at this point is that I might be totally blacked out drunk by the time we get to see McCain’s sad panda speech.

  14. There are also tons of university students in AZ who are freakishly gay for Obama… if they are not too drunk or hungover or involved in group sex to vote.

  15. [re=154127]monty[/re]: Hey, speaking of MO, there was an article today listing the top 5 most ‘red’ and ‘blue’ cities, and STL was a runner-up for most blue! All we need are a few more gay nightclubs and free abortion day at Planned Parenthood, and we might just reach #2, behind Pinko San Fran!

  16. [re=154129]Gopherit[/re]: On Obama’s success with young America: “He’s inviting people to take deep tokes off of his bong packed with hope,” – Stephen Colbert.

  17. [re=154093]slappypaddy[/re]: Jane should make her reservation now at the local internment camp. Bunks will be at a premium after the Supreme Court steals the election for McNuggets on Nov. 5th.

  18. Easy, people. Step back and check yourselves. I’m pretty damned sure that there are tumbleweeds blowing through the McCain offices in Utah, and I’m also pretty damned sure WALNUTS! is going to carry that state 60%-30% (with 10% being tithed to the prophet, naturally). Same thing in the giant desert retirement community that is AZ–once you’re north of the goat farms and peyote communes around Tucson, the state is red to the core. Enthusiasm results.

    Get used to disappointment. Somehow, we’ll still find a way to piss this whole thing away and the Repubs will end up with their beloved permanent majority.

  19. I read somewhere that Obama is not campaigning in AZ to avoid offending McCain with excessive celebration. Personally, I would like to see him spike the ball in endzone and do a little pelvic pump thing in downtown Phoenix.

  20. Way to pull ahead in your home state John!…well, tie. Damn dude, you’re doomed. There’s only one responsible thing to do. Steal the election for the good of the country! (Hey, they’ve got experience with that sort of thing, and someone has to save us from ourselves).

  21. Maybe those Arizonians are tired of hearing the FIVE AND A HALF YEARS! crap. I think he pulled that out on them for every election, debate & as a defense for Keating 5 & repeatedly voting down the negro MLK holiday. They’re thinking ‘STFU & RETIRE!!’

  22. [re=154230]WadISay[/re]: Considering all the things McCain has said about him, I hope Obama just saturates the airwaves in AZ just for the spite of it. It’s not like he doesn’t have the money. Plus, McCain seems like he’s about a millimeter away from snapping and that could be the one that pushes him over the edge.

  23. [re=154207]edgydrifter[/re]: Dude, you might want to invest in a bottle of prozac and one of those fancy phototherapy (palin tanning bed) lights. cheer up!

  24. [re=154111]BigDupa[/re]: Lots of retired folks in Surprise and Sun City are from the Midwest and dig Barry, including my inlaws. Obama will do better with ol’ folks there than you think. I agree that it’s a long stretch of the imagination, but could it be that our imaginations are rusty after 8 years of Shrubbie in the White House? Not everyone in Arizona is as dumb as Alice Cooper.

  25. Well, if all of those tortilla munchin’ operatives who work every day tending Wally and the Ice Queen’s backyards would put down the rakes and bags of mulch for 5 seconds to get out the vote, maybe they wouldn’t have this problem. Slackers.

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