POLLING THEORIES  9:25 am October 27, 2008

Bizarro Bradley Effect Shocker: Voters Secretly Refuse To Support Republican Candidates

by Sara K. Smith

Republicans are people too.Through the magic of his math and numbers, Nate Silver has proved conclusively that modern American voters have a very secret shameful prejudice they will only indulge in the privacy of the polling booth: they do not like Republicans. Sure, they will tell a pollster on the phone, “Yes, I am definitely voting for that nice Republican. Some of my best friends are Republicans!” but then they will still pull the lever for the Democrat when nobody is looking. This is why so many Republican candidates underperformed in 2006 poll projections. Americans must have an open, honest dialogue about party affiliation so that our poll projections can be more accurate. [FiveThirtyEight]

 

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{ 68 comments }

SuperRounder October 27, 2008 at 9:29 am

I really can’t wait a week. Let the bloodbath begin already.

4tehlulz October 27, 2008 at 9:29 am

The obvious answer is take away the opportunity to deceive by eliminating voting.

Borat October 27, 2008 at 9:31 am

Hasn’t this problem already been solved by computer programmers of voting machines? You see if you factor this effect into your program, you can make sure to correct for it. Then we don’t have to worry about pesky inaccuracies in polls and the GOP gets those votes back. Come on, you know we all want to vote GOP just don’t have the guts.

Gob October 27, 2008 at 9:33 am

I voted for a Republican once. I hope Jesus can forgive me.

jbd October 27, 2008 at 9:33 am

[re=150123]4tehlulz[/re]: Seconded. All opinions about future leaders should either be read from minds directly or tortured out of the brave citizens willing to step forward to make a selection.

dano October 27, 2008 at 9:34 am

[re=150125]Borat[/re]: Thankfully we don’t have electronic voting machines here in N.C. We still have our paper ballots and felt-tipped pens.

jbd October 27, 2008 at 9:37 am

[re=150132]dano[/re]: How…. Quaint.

By which I mean backwards.

Dreadful Gate October 27, 2008 at 9:38 am

I voted in the Canadian election. The polling station was half a block from my house. There were 6 polls inside. No one was there. I voted in the space of time required to boot my computer up. The ballots were paper. The votes were counted and the result known inside of two hours. The election campaign was 30 days long. What is it with you guys?

Keram2 October 27, 2008 at 9:40 am

That’s not political transcendence.

bluebrazos October 27, 2008 at 9:40 am

I dream of a day when a candidate will be judged by the content of his character and not the color of his party.

Dreadful Gate October 27, 2008 at 9:41 am

PS, the Canadian election cost all of $30 million, all of it public financing. Get with it!

freakishlystrong October 27, 2008 at 9:44 am

So the Diebold machines are just helping them out by switching the secret shame vote of an (R) for a (D), back to an (R)? Helpful!

dano October 27, 2008 at 9:45 am

[re=150133]jbd[/re]: Call it quaint or backwards if you must, but I get an extreme amount of pleasure out of filling each and every tiny oval next to the democratic candidates names with my felt-tipped pen. On a related topic, contrary to popular belief, not all of us here in N.C. are cousin humping hillbillies. I would estimate around 30% at most. I’m originally from western P.A. so I’m able to blend in without drawing too much attention.

grendel October 27, 2008 at 9:51 am

[re=150133]jbd[/re]: Haha… we have paper ballots in NY too, with big steampunk metal machines to punch them… Of course, my vote will be counted as cast, unlike yours which Diebold will change to whoever pays them the most.

TJBeck October 27, 2008 at 9:51 am

Knocking on doors this weekend in the Philly burbs, I found a house where Mr. Voter was voting for Obama, and so was his wife. He didn’t want me to tell anyone or really mark it down anywhere that could be found because Mrs. Voter happened to be a county commissioner – a Republican county commissioner – and didn’t want anyone to know she’d be voting for Obama. Their 18-year-old son, however, signed up for three all-day canvassing shifts for GOTV.

stolichnayaaa October 27, 2008 at 9:52 am

No no no, the Republican Bradley effect is when you solicit sex in an airport restroom, but then later tell the police that you were not soliciting sex in an airport restroom.

grendel October 27, 2008 at 9:52 am

[re=150137]Dreadful Gate[/re]: Yeah, but who wants to be the leader of Canada, anyway? Then you’d have to deal with the Quebecois…

Cape Clod October 27, 2008 at 9:53 am

So all those wingnuts with their arab monkey dolls are really on our side? I take little solace from that.

Robbertjan October 27, 2008 at 9:53 am

so basically there are people who will never vote for that one because he’s black but they won’t admit it because they don’t want to be seen as racists and on the other side you have people who claim never to vote for a democrat but who will secretly vote for a democrat even if he’s black as long as the neighbourhood doesn’t find out?

whiteasasheet October 27, 2008 at 9:54 am

[re=150140]Dreadful Gate[/re]: You have to realize that with the collapse of the financial sector, this campaign is second only to waging war in keeping the U.S. economy afloat.

grendel October 27, 2008 at 9:54 am

[re=150149]stolichnayaaa[/re]: No, that’s the Craig effect

Terry October 27, 2008 at 9:55 am

[re=150147]grendel[/re]:

I miss the old style voting booths with the curtains and the giant handle you pulled to lock in your vote. That cha-chunk noise is the sound of democracy in action to me. The touch screens are more like trying to use the self-checkout line at the grocery store, except that I don’t have to search for where they’ve hidden the broccoli.

Dreamer October 27, 2008 at 9:56 am

Can we call it the “W” effect?

dano October 27, 2008 at 9:57 am

[re=150149]stolichnayaaa[/re]: I’ve heard you can catch teh gay from a airport bathroom toilet seat.

monty October 27, 2008 at 9:59 am

[re=150146]dano[/re]: cousin humping? who wants to hump their cousin, that is so republican. Sister humping on the other hand now thats progress.wokka wokka wokka

slithytoves October 27, 2008 at 10:00 am

I can’t read Nate Silver’s articles anymore – they give me a headache. I just like to look at the pretty pictures. I have a lady brain.

TommySez October 27, 2008 at 10:01 am

@Dreadful Gate:

On the other hand, what world-wide ramifications do Canadian elections have? HRRMMRM?

(I’m just kidding. I like Canada.)

Holden Caulfield October 27, 2008 at 10:01 am

You know, I’m all for Republicans having equal rights. But really, having one of them as President is just too much.

magic titty October 27, 2008 at 10:01 am

[re=150137]Dreadful Gate[/re]: USA! USA!

4tehlulz October 27, 2008 at 10:02 am

[re=150157]Dreamer[/re]: I prefer the “Palin Effect”. For any given racist, there will be a politician so scary, so rancid, that voting for COMRADE BARACK HUSSEIN OSAMA is the only reasonable option.

Robbertjan October 27, 2008 at 10:02 am

[re=150158]dano[/re]: only when you sat down on the toilet while there was already another man sitting.

ManchuCandidate October 27, 2008 at 10:03 am

What’s not to like about Republicans?

Pro eelight
Pro fiscal disaster
Pro fiscal irresponsibility
Pro Surveillance
Pro Bidnez
Pro deregulation of everything
Pro disease (food deregulation)
Pro death (war etc)
Pro crime (of all varieties)
Pro kiddie diddling (Cocktober)
Pro gay sex/anal rape (again Cocktober)
Pro teenage pregnancies
Pro moron (see Palin’s supporters)

Gob October 27, 2008 at 10:03 am

[re=150140]Dreadful Gate[/re]: Yeah, but you live in Canada. With Canadians.

freakishlystrong October 27, 2008 at 10:08 am

[re=150166]ManchuCandidate[/re]: Excellent!, one addition:
Anti personal responsibilty (for anything).

Dreadful Gate October 27, 2008 at 10:08 am

[re=150167]Gob[/re]: Where we still have the world’s soundest banking system, and handguns are outlawed. Nyah nyah nyah!

Cape Clod October 27, 2008 at 10:10 am

[re=150164]4tehlulz[/re]: It will be a fine day in this country when red blooded Republican free marketers will not have to hide their love of socialism.

Ashley Todd Palin October 27, 2008 at 10:10 am

I am a Québécois (the sovereignist variety), and I’d like to tell you not to worry anymore about this crazy Québec independence shit — two oh noes in 1980 and in 1995 are ample proof that the Catalans have more balls than us. In fact, I personally can’t wait until next week so that I can at last feel free to flee our Canadian conservative masters by emigrating to Obamaland. Of course, I could always go to France, but not before all the French are gone.

Kingbee October 27, 2008 at 10:10 am

Republican is the new Black.

Gopherit v2.0 October 27, 2008 at 10:13 am

Grampy is huffing and puffing his normal line of crap this morning. It sounds like maybe 20 or people are applauding for him, too.

As for the Dubya effect, I believe it is biased against hobos, whose only phones are strings and tin cans.

Fly-over Correspondent October 27, 2008 at 10:13 am

[re=150140]Dreadful Gate[/re]: Just in case this thing doesn’t turn out so well, is anybody hiring up there? And how difficult is it to get a green card?

ManchuCandidate October 27, 2008 at 10:15 am

[re=150169]Dreadful Gate[/re]:
That’s only because the Liberals said NO to Canadian bankers wanting to join in. An irony lost among the crowing bankers and our PM Fatty McGoo.

dano October 27, 2008 at 10:16 am

[re=150170]Cape Clod[/re]: Ha ha! republican free market bankers just LOVE socialism when it will save their jobs. Later on they can go back to hating regulation.

Dreamer October 27, 2008 at 10:17 am

[re=150164]4tehlulz[/re]: I agree it makes more sense to call it the “Palin Effect.”

On another note, I was just watching MSNBC and McCain was giving a speech about the economy – nothing memorable except he called Hopey, Pelosi and Reed a “dangerous threesome” then he gave one of his creepy grins. Now thanks to that dirty old man I cannot eat my breakfast – as a result I will be stuck with this flue according to my mom.

grendel October 27, 2008 at 10:18 am

[re=150178]Fly-over Correspondent[/re]: Dude, if Walnuts steals this election, you’re not going to want to be on the same continent. I’m gonna hide out in South America should that happen.

4tehlulz October 27, 2008 at 10:22 am

>>“dangerous threesome”

Did the crowd snicker, or were they too busy fapping to the threesome to bother?

elcapitan October 27, 2008 at 10:23 am

[re=150157]Dreamer[/re]: It is most certainly the “Macaca effect” still haunting us after all these months.

Dreamer October 27, 2008 at 10:27 am

[re=150190]4tehlulz[/re]: they snickered. And I don’t think I can ever have breakfast again.

OMG the KKK Palin rally in Virginia has new chants: “have a brain vote McCain” and “I am Joe”. My brain hurts but I have no energy to change the channel.

JoeFannyPack October 27, 2008 at 10:30 am

[re=150157]Dreamer[/re]: Isn’t that already the name for a country whose IQ grows lower every day for eight years?

freakishlystrong October 27, 2008 at 10:31 am

[re=150198]Dreamer[/re]: Oh, I read that at first as “Half a brain vote McCain”..and today, we are all Joe.

MarieDeGournay October 27, 2008 at 10:36 am

I want this to be like the zombie invasions happenning now in World of Worldcraft…lvl 70 zombs ganking lowbie GOPers all week with no heals in sight!!

Borat October 27, 2008 at 10:36 am

[re=150132]dano[/re]: That’s good news about the paper technology. 8 years ago I would have never thought I would say it, but now I think hanging chads are sexy. Especially when they hang a little to left

tremendous October 27, 2008 at 10:40 am

[re=150156]Terry[/re]: no, see with the self service checkout things, you just deny that you’d buy broccoli to the supermarket worker and stuff it in your bag in shame.

donner_froh October 27, 2008 at 10:43 am

[re=150184]grendel[/re]: The political heirs of General Stroessner are welcoming rich gringos to the ranchlands of the Gran Chaco.

Dreamer October 27, 2008 at 10:52 am

[re=150192]elcapitan[/re]: I think the “Palin Effect” is more apt because people are deciding to vote for our Hopey despite their prejudice because they are scared they will end up with an unqualified president in these serious times. “Macaca Effect” implies that these Republicans are troubled by racism and xenophobia.

[re=150209]freakishlystrong[/re]: When they were chanting I thought the same thing.

[re=150207]JoeFannyPack[/re]: “W Effect” migth be electing a candidate based on qualification not on silly things like wanting to have a beer with them. I can dream!

Rush October 27, 2008 at 11:01 am

[re=150169]Dreadful Gate[/re]:

One fact to also consider, Jerry and the boys (sans Donna Jean)never liked touring north of Buffalo anyway. Besides, it’s Jack Straw from Wichita, not Jack Straw from Manitoba.

Woodwards Friend October 27, 2008 at 11:03 am

Look it’s not like I hate Republicans. There are a couple that I work with that are real nice people but they aren’t my people. I just think everyone should stay with their own kind. I mean could you imagine one of them marrying your daughter? Think about that, your grandchildren would be half-Republican. I’m sorry but I don’t agree with that at all.

Rush October 27, 2008 at 11:11 am

[re=150250]Woodwards Friend[/re]:

That would be scarier than some young 18 year old white girl having an out-of-wedlock child with a man from Africa and naming their son Hopey.

natoslug October 27, 2008 at 11:19 am

I used to look forward to this whole mess being over with, but then I realized that the 2012 campaign season begins November 5.

natoslug October 27, 2008 at 11:23 am

[re=150250]Woodwards Friend[/re]: Living in Idaho, I’ve learned to hate ALL Republicans. Of course, since I am represented by the shining lights of goodness known as Larry Craig and Bill Sali, I think I’ve earned the right to hate them all with a passion. Even before his “There’s forty barrels of oil in every tree” comment, Sali was impressing us all with his special knowledge of how abortions cause breast cancer.

Styrofoam Boots October 27, 2008 at 11:28 am

I think it’s seriously time to divide this country into 2, literally. Repubs can have their side and us dems can have the other. Of course, then we have to worry about when they decide to bomb/liberate us or commandeer our bio-fueled vehicles.

Lazy Media October 27, 2008 at 11:31 am

[re=150132]dano[/re]: Yeah, but those ballots are read by optical scanners, which are part of the Republican Robot Control Conspiracy. WaKE UP, SHEEPLE!!11!!1111

CorkPopper October 27, 2008 at 11:37 am

[re=150156]Terry[/re]: Yes! NYC still has those machines, and I think they’re great. I think they’re supposed to get rid of them under HAVA, but they haven’t managed to do it yet. As a new Long Island resident, I don’t know what awaits me as I go vote next week, but whatever it is probably won’t involve that lovely ka-chunk sound.

magic titty October 27, 2008 at 11:39 am

Nate looks so sleeeepy on the tv these days. Let’s all take him out for a drink after this election debacle is over.

GDTRFB October 27, 2008 at 11:55 am

I hope this baseball boy genious Silver is correct…OMG he better be correct! If he is, I want to hire him to make all my decisions in life based on his ingenious outcome prediction models.

Miller October 27, 2008 at 12:22 pm

It’s called double secret reverse racism and it occurs whenever a populace looks at a political party made up entirely of old white guys and deems them responsible for everything that went wrong. It’s the worst form of racism because it holds old white Republicans directly accountable for their policies and positions. Someday we’ll be able to move on from this and become a more tolerant society.

http://thesebastards.blogspot.com/

sezme October 27, 2008 at 12:33 pm

[re=150140]Dreadful Gate[/re]: I agree with you mostly. Yes it’s mind-boggling how much better run Canadian elections are than the US ones. A non-partisan national body like Elections Canada is so obviously better than the patchwork of crazy state by state systems and Through The Looking-Glass inspired ballots that somehow get a US government democratically elected (or not!) that it defies logic that a similar system doesn’t exist in the States. Also I unreservedly apologise for the preceding rat’s nest of a sentence.

But! The last election cost $300 million, not $30 million. Not to mention the fact that the only right-wing party among 5 major parties was able to form a government based on 38% of the vote.

chaste everywhere October 27, 2008 at 12:56 pm

Nate Silver is the boy hero of all of us recovering Catholix who are slowly and excrutiatingly transitioning from mass-porn to math-porn.

Q. “What did Karl Marx mean when he wrote, ‘Religion is the opiate of the masses’?”
A. “He meant religion is like a drug that gets you through mass.”

hobospacejungle October 27, 2008 at 1:05 pm

[re=150198]Dreamer[/re]: Let’s give the KKK Palin folk credit. Until now all they knew how to chant was USA! USA! USA! and Drill Aborted Unborn Fetus Drill!

To answer W’s question — Is your childrens learning? Yes! They most certainly is!

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