Wonkette
Ho ho, here’s more of those “encouraging polls” you people love so much: Barack Obama is leading in a trio of states often seen as pretty important to these presidential elections. In the bitter land of Pennsylvania, Hopey leads 54-39. In Ohio, it’s 50-42. And in that one place we all love so much, Florida? The Quinnipiac swing-state poll puts Barry ahead 51-43. [Ben Smith/Quinnipiac]
To paraphrase Colbert, “Polls are just statistical representatives of reality, and we all know reality has a liberal bias.”
To win, Hopey needs the Kerry states plus Colorado and New Mexico. But to take Ohio AND FL on top opf that would be sweeeet.
“Florida? The Quinnipiac swing-state poll puts Barry ahead 51-43.”
I guess Sarah Silverman’s viral vid of Pop Pop and Gange Emotional Blackmail worked.
We are pleased.
It looks like Obama is puckering…I most certainly see some pucker action in that pic.
Barry, see what can happen when you start campaining in the hobo camps?
One of the most surprising sets of polls to come out apart from the -20/+2 swing in NC in a day. There indeed seems to be a 3-4 point debate swing, something no other pollster or tracker has been able to catch. Kudos to Nate Silver at http://www.fivethirtyeight.com, who insisted that Obama has been gaining ground in Ohio recently and should come out with a lead soon.
Remember, assholes, this only works if you actually remember to vote!
Kiss kiss kiss!
Ha, ha, ha, ha,! There aren’t enough gray haired bitters in the whole country to stop our Barry!
President Beeblebrox: Flipping Iowa would be nice, too. Bush BARELY won it in 2004.
I shall take a much deserved moment to relax my shoulders, breathe deeply and smile. Anybody else been on the defensive so much lately that their shoulders were dangerously close to growing behind their ears?
Hey, lookee: the Dems dug up their own GILF for Biden to practice (debating) on!
obfuscator: I’d like to take NC, Virginia, and Georgia (the redneck one) too. Running up as many red states as possible is the best Fuck You I can think of to the Ralph Reed set that is legal and consensual.
I don’t believe this shit. Remember those exit polls that had Kerry crushing Bush?
Nice photo op; nothing gets the bitters like hugging some old loser vet.
My State, N.C., actually looks competitive right now (slight lead for McCain, but only a point over the margin of error). Could my vote really count this time?
Accounting for the Bradley factor he’s actually still behind in those states. And I think the Bradley factor’s 15% is optimistic.
obfuscator: And by won you mean ‘probably stole’.
Great. Now, I don’t even have to bother voting since it’ll be such a landslide. Oh, wait. Maybe that’s just what THEY want me to think…Damn you pollsters and your mind games!
Agh! That pic! GET AWAY FROM HIM, TREEBEARD, WITH YOUR LOSERNISH!
in the tank! in the tank!
this is the only poll that is even close to having Barry this far ahead. in fact, i saw him losing Ohio yesterday in another one.
so scrunch up your shoulders and intestines and sphincters and whatever all over again, wonketteers.
have a pleasant morning.
Oh fret not republitards…you guys always “win” with a nice sloppy mix of voter caging, apathy amongst young hipster voters, good old American cheating, untested electronic voting machine software and teh Supremes.
Whaddaya mean “you people”?
TGY: And you know, I bet Kerry is stiff in the sack. Not in the good way.
Delicious: Yes, but John Kerry was black. Bradley Effect, etc.
Since today is only Oct 1, I am hereby suspending my campaign of hopefulness as dictated by poll data. McNutty has plenty of time for game-changers (e.g. replace VP, a debate misfire, foreign or domestic incident, some accusation of a ribald nature against Demtards, some other hotbutton issue demonstration). One has to expect and prepare for the fact the Rovians will present or McPoppy will maverickiously splat out October surprises!
Note Silver’s data on Indy voters going down in recent days. These are the votes that matter and I can’t believe they are solid. The rest of us have long been in the tank.
We have early voting here in the Sunshit State, which I’m not going to participate in,
this being FL, I fully expect the ballot to end up in another dimension and I’ll end up voting for FDR.
…dont worry everyone, there is still time for us Floridians to screw it all up! I mean after all our state motto is: Fukking things up since 1845!
Herunar: Fivethirtyeight.com is an interesting site in that it assesses probabilities of victory nationwide and on a state level based on polling.
Right now they have predicted an 82.8% chance of a Hopey victory nationwide. The probabilities of Hopey winning in swing states is interesting: Ohio 66%, Pennsylvania 86%, Florida 61%, Iowa 96%.
Another reason why the GOP may be teh fucked next month - the site also shows a good chance of six Senate seats changing hands from GOP to Dem (Alaska/Stevens, NH/Sununu, OR/Smith, NM/Pearce, and VA/Gilmore, and zero changing the other way).
PS: The Colbert photo on the site is brilliant.
It ain’t over ’til Barry’s King. Erm, I mean, I ain’t lootin’ until Fox News calls it.
Yes, there is still that “Diebold” factor to consider also.
magic titty: Barry’s looking good in Iowa, much better than Kerry did, at any rate. He’s had the ground game there since mid-2007, so the voters are much more comfortable with him than McCain, who finished 4th in the caucuses and didn’t really campaign there.
Bonus: Thanks to Barry’s GOTC effort, Iowa now has 100,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans.
Delicious: Those exit polls were accurate. It’s the voting machines that weren’t. The reptilians managed to pull off the win because the polls (which were as fraudulent then as now) had it close enough that it was believable, the voting machines were rigged, and Kerry was too much of a pussy to contest it.
The voting machines are probably still rigged, but the other two factors have changed.
AngryBlakGuy: HEY! Just when I was about to be proud of my Home State, you go and throw moose droppings at me!
obfuscator: Iowa’s in the bag already. I don’t think McCain is even going to contest it, especially now that they need to sink more resources into Ohio and Florida. It might even give Hopey a chance to capture Indiana and Missouri, which would be the big “Fuck You” icing on the cake for the Repugs.
ForTheTurnstiles: I’d like to see the GA polls when Bob Barr and Nader are listed as options in the poll. I think it might be closer than the national polls are showing.
Delicious: Yeah, there’s still the problem of election fraud… I’m not saying Bush/Rove stole those elections…. well, yes, I suppose I am.
You’ll know McCain is conceding Iowa when he proposes replacing all the Ethanol corn fields with nuclear waste dumps.
being, a texan who will be in FL on Nov. 4, is it too late to register there, i.e. “pull a cheney”?
grendel: I wonder if McCain’s giving up or having to choose between Minnesota & Wisconsin?
Quinnipiac is in CT, what do they know about FLA? At any rate, 51-43 is very convincing, and that’s with the geriatric Jewish population busy celebrating Rosh Hashanah. I’m doing the Hopey dance of joy!
obfuscator: Seeing as Walnuts totally shat on the Des Moines Editorial board (who all appeared to be women), I don’t think Barry’ll have any problem taking IA.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/01/mccain-gets-testy-with-de_n_130801.html
Norbert: BOHICA, buddy
Texan Bulldoggette:
“I have always had 100 percent absolute truth and that’s been my life of putting my country first. And I’ll match that record against anyone’s. And I’m proud of it. And an assertion that I have ever done otherwise I take strong exception to. And you will have to provide better proof than a bill that Sen. Obama supported that clearly calls for the teaching of sex education of young children.”
I think he’s been taking public speaking tips from Palin. What the hell was that?
In a way, I hope Barry loses the national popular vote 40-60% and wins the electoral college by one vote, my personal phuc yieu for 2000.
All that matter is how is Diebold tracking those states.
I guess voters in those states are just in the tank for Obama.
obfuscator: That was the sound of his campaign going down the toilet in IA. And yeah, the worse the polls get, the more nutjob he’s starting to sound. My dad who is late 60s & lives in AR says he’s senile & has no business running for shit.
When do we get to live-blog his meeting with Achmadinijad?
OH my God, Hopey is winning the bitter vote. Lets hope the trend will continue.
Reality is in the tank for Barry. Therefore I denounce and reject reality.
Texan Bulldoggette: That’s one Georgetown cocktail party I can believe in.
Voters are really responding to his message that he’s not a dangerous septuagenarian with a mean streak and a temper, with a ill informed PTA President seconding him. It seems to really resonate with people who don’t like living in cardboard boxes underneath underpasses.
http://thesebastards.blogspot.com/
obfuscator: “Thanks to Barry’s GOTC effort”
Yes, but I think that cows only get like 3/5ths of a vote.
“Conservatives accuse mathematics of bias in favor of Obama!”
obfuscator: He’d LIKE to be able to choose between Minnesota and Wisconsin, but every poll shows Hopey with strong leads in both states, and Nate Silver gives them 90 and 91 percent chances, respectively, of going Dem. The best result McCain has had there in months is a tie in Minnesota from Star Tribune, but that was released on 9/11, before the collapse of capitalism and the implosion of McCain’s candidacy.
Now watch Biden win the debate but completely lose the advantage by quoting G.H.W. Bush’s “I kicked a little ass” comment after the debate.
I personally went out and gave over 10,000 blow jobs this past weekend to my fellow Pennsylvanians. I think they are mellowing out now. You’re welcome.
TheWhig: The Devil’s Filmmaker. More Shepherd’s pie for Ralph Reed please.
We can has Cheney subpoenas now?
i still think it’s a GOP plot to make sure all these poll numbers get out in October to lower the temperature and make people think the election has already occurred, especially BHO’s young stoner brigade who thinks participating in a poll counts as voting, so they’ll just sleep in like they do through Philosophy 101 every Tuesday. Remember people, no touchdown dances until BHO’s in the end zone. I lived in DC in ‘04 and on Election Day, everyone (and I mean even my GOP pals) thought Kerry had won until he didn’t.
Ewwwww…….ickey…….now I don’t mind (too much) if hardly working Merkins want to “elect” a half-Negroe full-blooded Muslin to the House formerly known as White.
But PUH-LEEEZE Wonkettes, don’t rub it in with a snapshot of gay-positive O’Sama embracing and about to smack a bit wet one right on the lips our beloved patrician banker and bon vivant, President John “SmarTech” Kerry of Ireland. Gross!!
http://www.opednews.com/articles/opedne_josh_mit_070429_the_pivotal_ohio_vot.htm
WWJGD: What is reality?
More Science High.
At this point I want all 50, and Guam and Puerto Rico and Canada too…All of them damn it, this has gone on long enough. Only a rout of NBA finals game six majesty will please me.